For Ryan, House speakership could be political dead end

[October 22, 2015]  By Andy Sullivan
 
 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top job in the House of Representatives would give Paul Ryan a high-profile platform and put him second in line to succeed the U.S. president, but it could also mark the end of his political career, if the past is any guide.

Though the Speaker of the House is one of the most powerful jobs in Washington, only one person to hold it, James K. Polk, went on to become president, and that was in 1845.

More often, those who hold the speaker's gavel end their careers in defeat, driven from power by voters or colleagues.

Speaker John Boehner spent his tenure since 2011 fending off insurrections from hardline conservatives before he announced his retirement last month. When asked at a news conference if he was sorry to step down, Boehner responded by singing the Disney song "Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah."

Representative Ryan resisted pressure from Republican colleagues to succeed Boehner until Tuesday, when he said he would run for the job, but only if lawmakers united behind him. A full House vote is set for Oct. 29.

A rising Republican star, the 45-year-old from Wisconsin has shaped his party's spending policies. He was Mitt Romney's vice presidential running mate in the Republicans' unsuccessful 2012 bid for the presidency.

"He's a tremendous leader. It would be a huge opportunity for us to have somebody of his caliber in that position," Republican Representative Devin Nunes said on Wednesday.

As speaker, Ryan would have greater power to advance personal priorities and he would become one of his party's most prominent bulwarks against Democratic President Barack Obama.

But he would be plunged also into a Republican civil war between pragmatists and idealists that he has largely avoided so far. He would be forced to take responsibility for difficult and polarizing decisions.

For starters, a Speaker Ryan could immediately face a painful vote on raising the U.S. government's debt ceiling. With the country's borrowing authority due to run out early next month, Ryan could face the wrath of investors and interest groups like veterans and retirees if Congress fails to promptly boost the debt limit. But agreeing to do so without winning significant concessions from the Obama administration would infuriate conservative lawmakers and interest groups.

He also would become the face of an unpopular institution. Only 14 percent of U.S. adults hold a favorable opinion of Congress, according to an August 2015 Gallup poll.

Congress historically has not been a good launch pad for the presidency. Obama is one of only three U.S. politicians to go directly from the Senate to the White House. Polk, the former House speaker, was Tennessee governor before becoming president.

Ryan has one big asset: youth. Unlike Boehner, 65, and other lawmakers for whom the speakership capped a long career in politics, Ryan has decades to plot a path to the White House.

"Paul could write his own history," said John Feehery, a former top aide for House Speaker Dennis Hastert. "Past history is no indication of what's going to happen in the future."

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Howard Goller)

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