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 Billionaire Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson have
soared in the polls, in part because their plain-speaking resonates
with voters, while more established politicians such as former
Florida Governor Jeb Bush and U.S. senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz
have struggled to gain traction.
Many political pundits had predicted that Bush and other
establishment candidates would try to reassert control at
Wednesday's second Republican presidential debate. Instead, they
found themselves facing a new insurgent - Fiorina, in her first
debate with top-tier candidates.
“They all sort of blended in,” Fergus Cullen, the former chairman of
the New Hampshire Republican Party said of Fiorina's opponents.
“That’s what candidates can’t afford to do right now.”
Fiorina’s performance won wide praise on social media and from
political strategists. She commanded the stage equally with Bush,
Trump, and Carson — relegating the rest of the 11 candidates to the
background. Fiorina spoke nearly the longest, after Trump and Bush,
and some of her comments generated the most chatter on Twitter and
Facebook, the social media companies said.
At one point, she got into a fracas with Trump over her record at
Hewlett-Packard and also lectured him about the U.S. Constitution.
“Carly won it,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist in
Washington. “She was passionate and tough.”
 Throughout the summer, as Trump enjoyed an almost unchallenged run
at the top of presidential polls, the Republican establishment
waited for a more traditional candidate to cut into the outspoken
real estate mogul’s lead.That candidate never materialized. Instead,
Carson, who has never held public office, began to gain strength,
and now Fiorina may see a post-debate surge in her popularity.
If that happens, it remains unclear whether that would come at the
expense of Trump or Carson’s support, or whether she would draw from
voters who would normally support a candidate such as Bush, Rubio or
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.
INSURGENCY
According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos rolling presidential poll,
Trump and Carson together have the support of almost half of the
Republican primary electorate at 48 percent, a testament to the
power of their insurgent messages. Fiorina could swell that number,
effectively locking out the Republican establishment for the time
being.
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But money could be the one limiting factor. While Trump is using his
own money to fund his campaign, neither Carson nor Fiorina have been
able to leverage their grassroots popularity into large-scale
fundraising.
Along with that, some Republican strategists continue to view a
Trump fade as inevitable. Trump “showed he has little real grasp of
foreign and domestic policy,” in Wednesday's debate, said Brian
Walsh, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated
with any campaign.
Fiorina, who impressed many with her command of policy issues during
the debate, could attract voters who like Trump's outspokenness but
have expressed concerns about his ability to win a general election.
Many in the Republican establishment fervently hope a more
traditional candidate would benefit from a Trump slide. Rubio was
cited by several Republican strategists as being well positioned to
make a run at the top-tier contenders. They lauded him for his
answers on national security on Wednesday.
At one point in the debate, frustration with the attention the
outsiders were receiving seemed to boil over, with an exasperated
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie complaining about Fiorina and Trump
eating up air-time as they tussled over their private-sector
achievements.
“The fact is we don’t want to hear about your careers, back and
forth and volleying back and forth about who did well and who did
poorly. You’re both successful people. Congratulations,” Christie
interjected.
(Editing by Ross Colvin)
[© 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
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