Price falls hammer euro as China cuts required reserve rate

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[February 29, 2016]  By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro sank half a percent against the dollar and some 1.3 percent against the yen on Monday after a shockingly low flash first official estimate of inflation showed consumer prices in Europe were falling again.

China's cut in the required reserve rate for banks prodded the yuan minimally lower and drove the Australian dollar to a day's high.

But the failure of a Group of 20 meeting to generate any hope of governments spending much more to bolster a flagging global economy knocked back most growth-linked currency plays.

The fall in the flash reading of euro zone inflation to -0.2 percent boosted expectations that the European Central Bank will have to ease policy aggressively next month, driving the euro back below $1.09 to a four-week low.

"The read is that we got precisely zilch in new help from the G20 so it is back to plan A: buy the dollar," said the head of currency trading at a large Asian bank in London.

 

"If that holds, the target for the dollar index is 98.40 and it almost got there this morning."

Speculators will be watching the Chinese yuan closely after Monday's action. Both offshore and onshore rates are now down almost 1 percent against the dollar since Asian markets returned from the Lunar New Year holiday.

Officials, however, have consistently said they want to keep the currency broadly stable and there have been numerous signals on moves to keep control of the capital flows out of China that drove the yuan sharply lower in December and January.

Chinese purchasing manager surveys are due on Tuesday.

Sterling, battered by "Brexit" referendum concerns last week, was trading below $1.39 after a weekend poll showed the "Out" camp in the lead ahead of the June 23 vote.

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The yen, traditionally investors' safe haven of choice in times of global economic tension, was still up 0.8 percent to 113.09 yen per dollar.

"There's a risk-off tone across the markets this morning," said Tobias Davis, head of corporate currency sales at Western Union in London. "The G20 has been seen as underwhelming, coupled with headline concerns around Brexit and Chinese equities slumping to 15 month lows."

The communique from Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers agreed to use "all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively" to improve growth, but was undercut by signs that some governments see no room to spend more going forward.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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