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 The current slide in stock prices, which on Friday briefly dragged
the S&P 500 to levels not seen in more than a year, is reminiscent
in breadth and tone of drop-downs seen during the Great Recession.
Some argue the decline is warranted. In addition, the market has not
seen the kind of sell-off in high volume that signals a
capitulation, and the S&P 500 could enter a bear market, more than 9
percent below current levels.
From most indications the U.S. economy is far from being in a
recession, according to many market participants. The repricing in
stocks could help the market shift back to fundamentals after years
of focusing on the Federal Reserve and its ultra-low interest rate
policy.
That is welcome news for some in the market who have seen stocks
trade on variables other than economic data and company earnings.
"I actually am encouraged to see the market drop so we can just get
to fair value and take it from there, then it is really determined
by the path of the economy, and profits and revenues," said Jack
Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago.
"To me, this is really a result of Fed influence, just a reversing
of all this Fed intervention."
Many point to a slowdown in China's economy and its expected weight
on global growth as a reason for the slide in stocks and the 12-year
lows in crude oil futures.
The Shanghai index <.SSEC> closed Friday at its lowest level since
December 2014, down more than 20 percent from its November high and
nearly 44 percent from its 2015 high.
"The spillover from China has been concentrated in crude oil and
there are reports that commodity hedge funds have experienced a
sharp increase in margin calls as the price of oil falls," said Gail
Dudack, chief investment strategist at Dudack Research Group in New
York in a Friday note to clients.
"Typical of most margin unwindings, selling will flow into equity
markets since stocks are often the most liquid assets in portfolios.
This explains why movements in the (S&P 500) have been closely
aligned with crude oil in recent weeks."
Friday had some of a capitulation type feel, with 944 New York Stock
Exchange issues hitting a 52-week low. It is only the fourth day
since the end of 2008 that the number is above 900. It also was the
seventh day in a row of more than 500 NYSE stocks at their lowest in
at least a year, a streak not seen since October 2008 -the month
following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
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Major indexes fell Friday for a third consecutive week. The S&P
closed at its lowest since late August while the Nasdaq Composite
ended at its lowest since October 2014.
FUNDAMENTALS ON TAP
U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday
and on Tuesday will reopen to fresh industrial output and retail
sales data out of China. Chinese GDP data is also due Tuesday, late
Monday on Wall Street.
"Some of the (market) fears may be comforted if we get good numbers
out of China Monday evening," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio
strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls,
Wisconsin.
He said if next week's U.S. core inflation data does not surprise on
the upside and manufacturing returns to expansion investors could
feel more comfortable returning to the stock market.
"That in addition to strong earnings, of course."
Among the largest companies to report results next week are Morgan
Stanley <MS.N>, Bank of America <BAC.N> and Goldman Sachs <GS.N> in
the financial world, while Starbucks <SBUX.O> and a handful of
airlines will speak to the health of the consumer.
(Aditional reporting by Dion Rabouin, Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by
Bernard Orr)
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