economists said soft consumer demand in the United States and
Japan and weakness in emerging markets due to worries over
plunging oil and commodity prices and capital outflows from
China were among the main risks.
A global recession is loosely defined as growth below the
roughly 2.5 percent needed for the world economy to keep up with
an expanding population.
"Two and a half percent seems to be the danger area for global
recession, because historically that is the real GDP growth rate
where you see GDP per capita go negative," said Elga Bartsch,
Morgan Stanley's global co-head of economics.
"Our base case is for a modest recovery to 3.3 percent. But the
risks are skewed to the downside and appear to have risen
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecasts
for global growth to 3.4 percent this year and 3.6 percent next,
the 16th time it has done so in its last 21 World Economic
Outlooks and WEO Updates.
Official figures meanwhile showed China's economy grew at its
slowest pace in quarter of a century last year.
Earlier this week, economists at French bank Societe Generale
assigned a 10 percent probability to the risk of a global
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Catherine Evans)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.