winter weather around the world cut global oil demand growth to
a one-year low of 1 million barrels per day in the fourth
quarter of 2015, down from a near five-year high of 2.1 million
bpd in the third quarter.
The IEA left its estimate of growth in global demand for 2016
unchanged from its previous monthly report at around 1.2 million
Brent crude futures <LCOc1> have fallen to their lowest level
since late 2003, tumbling below $30 a barrel, after OPEC said in
December it would not cut output to arrest the price slide
despite global oversupply.
"We conclude that the oil market faces the prospect of a third
successive year when supply will exceed demand by 1 million bpd
and there will be enormous strain on the ability of the oil
system to absorb it efficiently," the IEA said.
With the world economy slowing, the IEA said it had cut its
forecast for 2016 OPEC crude oil demand by 300,000 bpd to 31.7
Iran has said it will raise output by an initial 500,000 bpd now
that international sanctions have been lifted, but the IEA said
it believes the increase will be of a more modest 300,000 bpd by
the end of the first quarter of 2016.
The IEA is sticking with its forecast for a decline of around
600,000 bpd in non-OPEC output, which it said had been
surprisingly resilient in the face of tumbling crude oil prices.
(Reporting by Amanda Cooper; editing by Jason Neely)
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