said a simple average of the past 10 opinion polls showed a 2.7
percentage point lead for "Leave". This fell to 0.2 percentage
points after Citi adjusted the figures to even out the number of
telephone and online polls, and reduce the effect of different
polling companies' methodologies.
"Flirtation with political alternatives is often followed by
'snapback' to the status quo. We expect this bias for the status
quo to help tilt the outcome in favor of 'Remain,'" Citi said.
"Recent events in the UK have led to suspension of campaigning,
and some increased uncertainty. Overall, we continue to put the
risk of Brexit at the top of the 30-40 percent range."
(Reporting by David Milliken; editing by Stephen Addison)
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