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 No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. And
nowhere better reflects the challenges and opportunities Trump faces
in his 2016 presidential quest than Canton, a once-booming
industrial city that, like Ohio and the rest of America’s rust belt,
is going through profound economic and demographic change.
Canton, a gritty northeastern Ohio city where the once-dominant
steel industry has been in decline for 20 years, is the heart of
Stark County, a political bellwether that, save twice, has picked
every winning presidential candidate since 1964.
The real-estate mogul’s primary wins in Michigan and in Mississippi
on Tuesday, in the face of blistering attacks from the party's
establishment, expanded his lead in the White House nominating race
and demonstrated his broad appeal across many demographic groups in
the Republican Party.
But here, in predominately white Canton, the birthplace of
professional American football, he will need to show cross-over
appeal in the general election and win over not just Republicans but
working-class Democrats and some independents, to beat a Democrat,
illustrating the challenge he will face in Ohio and potentially
other Midwestern “rust belt” states.
A more immediate test looms next week in the state’s Republican
primary, where polls show Trump narrowly leads Ohio Governor John
Kasich, who casts himself as a pragmatic, statesman-like alternative
to Trump. If Trump wins Ohio and Florida — states rich in the
delegates who select their party's nominee at July's Republican
National Convention - he would almost certainly lock up his party’s
nomination.
Sitting in a steel workers' meeting at their Canton union hall,
Curtis Green, the chapter's vice president, described Trump's
support among a growing number of members as their "dirty little
secret."
"I view him as a radical and a racist and I don't want to be
affiliated with that," Green said. "But if you say what you mean, a
lot of guys see that in Trump and they respect that. He doesn't
dance around the issues, he takes them head on. There are a fair
amount of our members who do support Donald Trump."
OHIO PICKS WINNERS
If Trump just wins the states that Republican nominee Mitt Romney
won in 2012, he would have only 206 electoral college votes, short
of the 270 needed to win the White House. The fight over electoral
college votes has turned recent elections into pitched battles over
a dozen or so states.
Ohio is often at the center.
The state, which has not voted for the loser in a presidential
election since 1960, is seen as a microcosm of American swing voters
— from culturally conservative “Reagan Democrats” who defected from
their party to support Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980s to
suburban soccer moms and upwardly mobile Hispanics.
To offset the growing proportion of blacks and Hispanics in the
voting age population, Trump must turn white voters out in greater
numbers than Romney in cities such as Canton. His performance in
primary states where Democrats and independent can vote, as well as
Republicans, suggests Trump could attract large numbers of these
voters in a general election.
Reuters interviews here with more than two dozen voters show why.
 In this city of 72,500 people, Trump's denunciation of free trade,
political correctness and illegal immigrants is resonating among
some traditionally Democratic blue-collar steel workers.
"The labor unions, who usually support the Democrats, a lot of our
members, and a lot of their families, are supporting Trump," said
Keith Strobelt, a political director for the United Steelworkers
local union in Canton. Strobelt does not support Trump.
Canton's local United Steelworkers union has 1,800 members - down
from 6,700 at its peak 30 years ago. Its leadership has not
officially endorsed a candidate, thought it has praised Democrat
Senator Bernie Sanders. Some rank-and-file members, however, say
they better identify with Trump’s broadsides against illegal
immigration and tirades against trade with China and Mexico.
"It could be that several hundred of our members will back Trump,"
Strobelt said. "A lot find him refreshing. He says a lot of things
they say around their dinner tables."
“WRINGING THEIR HANDS”
But in a general election, Trump faces formidable odds in Canton, as
he does across Ohio and the Midwest. Canton and the region is
changing in ways that favor Democrats, reflecting the Republican
Party's broader problems with a U.S. electorate that is becoming
less white and less culturally conservative.
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In 2000, Canton was nearly 75 percent white, with an African
American population of 20 percent, and an Hispanic population of
just over 1 percent. Its biggest employer was the Timken Company, a
giant ball bearing and high custom steel manufacturer that was the
dominant economic force in Canton for much of the 20th century.
By 2010, according to Census data, Canton was 69 percent white. Its
black population had increased by 3 percent, its Hispanic residents
to nearly 3 percent.
Tuesday’s primary in neighboring Michigan showed how volatile this
election has become, with Trump’s potent appeal among disaffected
whites stretching beyond the South. In the Democratic race, Sanders
won most of the state’s white working-class countryside and small
towns in an upset over front-runner Hillary Clinton.
In Canton, like elsewhere in the “rust belt” heartlands stretching
from the Midwest to the Great Lakes region and parts of the
Northeast, manufacturing has been hollowed out since the 1970s, due
in part to foreign competition. In 1990, Ohio had over 1 million
manufacturing jobs; today, just 680,000, according to the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ohio has shed nearly 200,000
manufacturing jobs since the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
A different type of worker, more white collar and upscale, has moved
into the Canton area.
The top two employers are now the Aultman Hospital and Mercy Medical
Center, highly competitive health care providers.
“While Trump might pick up blue collar Democrats, and older folks
who are disillusioned with the political process, the flip side is
he could lose more upper-status voters in Ohio," said John Green, a
political science professor at the University of Akron, close to
Canton. "Republican Party leaders in Ohio are wringing their hands.
There is a perception that Trump helps among blue collar voters -
but could alienate white collar voters."
Jane Timken, the vice-chair of the Stark County Republican Party and
the wife of TimkenSteel's chief executive, said the local party was
encountering people who had never voted Republican before but were
supporting Trump.
But, she said, there was concern Trump might turn off other voters,
especially independents who account for one fifth of Ohio's voters.
There is no polling to predict which way Canton and Stark County
will vote in November's general election. But after a long era of
mixed local government, the city council, after elections last year,
is now made up of entirely Democratic Party members, although the
current mayor, a former Democrat, won office as an independent.
In Canton, there are nearly 6,000 voters registered as Democrats,
compared to just over 1,100 Republicans according to the Stark
County Board of Elections. In 2006, there were 12,000 registered
Democrats and 4,400 Republicans.
Democratic strategists say that despite the demographic changes,
Trump could still prevail.
Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic strategist, cites Trump's dominant
performance in the Republican primary in Massachusetts on March 1.
Although not a rust belt state, Trump won big in heavily blue
collar, union cities.
"Trump put together a coalition in Massachusetts that elects
Democratic governors. He won among Catholics, a week after picking a
fight with the Pope. I absolutely think he can put the rust belt
into play," she said.
(Editing by Jason Szep and Ross Colvn)
[© 2016 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2016 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
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