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 The racing statistics are favorable for the NASCAR Sprint Cup
through the first five races, the TV ratings are down and ticket
sales are ambling along.
First the statistics, which are said to follow directly after "lies
and damned lies." In the case of NASCAR's new rules package the
statistics look good.
The average margin of victory in the first five races was 0.367
seconds, which is the best since electronic timing and scoring began
in 1993. That includes two races decided by 0.10 seconds at the
Daytona International Raceway and the Phoenix International Raceway.
The Daytona 500 had its closest finish ever. And though many thought
the first 199 laps were dull and uneventful, the closing lap with
Denny Hamlin vaulting to victory from three positions behind leader
Matt Kenseth made it a memorable day at the races. The Phoenix event
was decided by 0.10 seconds in favor of Kevin Harvick after contact
three times in the last two turns between his Chevy and the Toyota
of Carl Edwards.
 These are the kind of events that usually drive fan interest. Also,
the fact everybody has been getting into the act, hence
unpredictability, usually helps hold fans' attention. Three different manufacturers won the first three races and four
different drivers and teams won the first four. The new low
downforce package has been praised ad infinitum by drivers and its
benefit show up in statistical data. In Atlanta, a record 44 passes
for the lead under green took place (in part due to pit stops, of
course). In Fontana, where Jimmie Johnson became the first two-time
winner, there were a record 51 green flag passes for the lead, also
a record since the loop data reports first started in 2005.
Toyota won its first Daytona 500, Harvick recorded an eighth career
victory in Phoenix and Johnson surpassed Dale Earnhardt Sr.'s career
victories with his 77th in Fontana.
Yet, the TV ratings for all five of the season's races have been
down. So, what else is new? Clearly the viewing habits are changing.
Older fans may be dropping out and younger fans are not sitting in
front of TVs for three-hour spans. Evidently, the NCAA Tournament,
one of TV's all-time best sports properties, is suffering from the
same trend -- its opening round games also dropped in the ratings
this year.
Some perspective is in order. The Fontana race drew a 4.0 final
rating, according to Sports Media Watch, and a viewing audience of
6.8 million, certainly strong numbers. But those ratings are down 9
percent from 2014 and 7 percent from 2015. On the other hand, the
NASCAR race was the highest-rated sports event other than the NCAA
Tournament and the California race easily outpaced its competition
from the NBA. The Warriors vs. the Spurs, according to SMW, drew a
3.1 rating and viewership of 5.2 million.
 The worst news for NASCAR might be that the NBA has enjoyed
increased ratings on ABC, which is averaging a 3.7 rating and 6.37
million viewers -- very likely due to the rise of Stephen Curry and
the final season of Kobe Bryant. That's nearly 50 percent better
than last year on ratings and 57 percent better in viewership. It
was the highest-ever average for NBA telecasts for ABC through
February, according to SMW, since the network took over from NBC in
2002. Some of this may be driven by scheduling, but not everybody,
it seems, is bleeding TV ratings due to changing viewing habits. It could be worse for NASCAR. Formula 1, the world's longtime leader
in motorsports TV viewership, is on the verge of crisis over
dwindling TV ratings and poor ticket sales just one race into the
season. Commercial rights holder Bernie Ecclestone, a billionaire,
has been quoted saying the racing is so bad he wouldn't buy tickets
and take his family to see it. The teams are constantly bickering
about rules, a process that includes sanctioning body FIA and its
committees.
The Grand Prix Drivers Association has recently gotten into the act
by complaining about the series' rules process. Former champions
Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, plus current champion Lewis
Hamilton have spoken out, too. None of the participating parties, it
seems, believe Formula 1 has the right formula for sustaining its
fan base following several years of downward trends and
ever-shifting race locations.
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By comparison, NASCAR has undergone a successful makeover of its
rules by instituting a low downforce package that has drivers, teams
and manufacturers working together effectively, possibly even
happily. The statistical results in terms of the competition support
that point of view. Granted, five races do not a season make, but
why don't the TV ratings follow suit?
One point of view is that NASCAR resembles the current political
realm, where opinions about candidates are formed less by actual
facts and evidence and more by perception.
Given the new charter system, which guarantees a starting spot to 36
drivers and teams, NASCAR and its drivers may no longer perceived as
an everyman sport. While the reduction of the field to a maximum of
40 cars and only four positions available for non-charter teams has
added to the quality of competition, it's also added to the
perception that the little guy no longer has a chance to go from
rags to riches by showing more skill and bravery.
Historically, NASCAR fans have identified with drivers they perceive
being much like themselves, guys from working class backgrounds who
have earned their success. There was always fluidity to opportunity
in racing, because all drivers were free agents and once upon a time
guys like Alan Kulwicki could control their own destiny by racing
their own cars. Now there are a fixed number of successful,
well-moneyed teams and drivers invariably have long-term contracts.
If drivers don't have a deal with one of the established teams while
racing in the minor leagues, they aren't likely to be a star of the
future. It's all relatively formatted -- unlike the free agency and
non-contract players vying for starting positions in the other major
leagues.
Most of the current NASCAR regulars may also have come from modest,
working-class backgrounds. And they had to work their way up by
demonstrating their talent. But fans don't seem to identify with the
sport as a path to the American dream as much anymore -- even if
they can acknowledge that most of the successful drivers had to
prove themselves much like their predecessors.
Three cases in point are Jimmie Johnson, Danica Patrick and Dale
Earnhardt Jr. Johnson is a phenomenal talent, one of the greatest
the sport will ever know and worth the price of admission. But he
doesn't have the popularity to show for it. Patrick has consistently
raced better than half the field, including her team co-owner and
three-time Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart. But she is often
regarded as just another pretty face who doesn't belong. Each driver
came from middle class backgrounds and like most of their peers had
to work their way up.
Earnhardt Jr., by contrast, is the sport's most popular driver by a
long shot and yet probably had the easiest path to the Sprint Cup
relative to any of his peers by virtue of breaking in with the team
of his famous and rich-from-racing father.
So the perception of deserved opportunity is one thing, popularity
among fans another. It will be interesting to see if the actual
racing begins to draw more fans on TV and in grandstands as the
season progresses -- or if NASCAR's popularity is tied to something
more illusory than outstanding racing.
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