Dollar strong at two-month highs on Fed rate view

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[May 25, 2016]  By Anirban Nag

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday on expectations the Federal Reserve is on course to raise interest rates in the coming months.

The euro, though held its ground and rose against the yen on relief that there was progress in Greek bailout talks. Euro zone finance ministers early on Wednesday gave a nod to releasing 10.3 billion euros ($11.48 billion) in new funds for Greece in recognition of painful fiscal reforms pushed through by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftist-led coalition

The dollar index was at 95.616 after rising as high as 95.661 earlier in the Asian session, its highest since late March. The index has risen nearly 3 percent this month. The latest move came after data showed new U.S. single-family home sales surged to a more than eight-year peak in April and prices hit a record high.

The euro was flat at $1.1142, holding above a 10-week low of $1.1133 struck on Tuesday, with an upbeat German IFO survey also underpinning sentiment.

The single currency was 0.3 percent higher against the yen at 122.80 as southern European government bonds rallied on the Greek news.

"The Greek debt problem was not the biggest concern, but there is relief it is out of the way and the euro is drawing some support from that," said Niels Christensen, FX strategist at Nordea. "The biggest focus in the currency market remains the Fed and rate hike expectations."

While some profit-taking emerged after the dollar's recent gains, many investors took a breather before data and events in coming days, traders said.

The upbeat housing numbers backed the Fed's April policy meeting minutes, released last week, which hinted it may raise rates soon if the economy appeared strong enough. Still, not many are convinced of a June rate hike, with markets pricing in only 38 percent chance of a move, according to CME's Fedwatch.

"I fear only one of the Fed heavy weights will be able to sway market expectations notably, above all the chair, Janet Yellen. Until then, the appreciation potential in dollar will remain limited," said Thu Lan Nguyen, currency strategist at Commerzbank.

Yellen is due to speak on Friday, which is also the concluding day for the G7 summit being held in Japan. Once the G7 summit is out of the way, markets will be focusing on whether Tokyo may be looking to postpone a scheduled sales tax hike and implement fiscal stimulus measures.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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