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Shares set for monthly gains, dollar buoyed by Fed outlook

[May 31, 2016] By Anirban Nag

LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares steadied at one-month highs on Tuesday, on track for a third straight month of gain, while the dollar held strong near two-month peaks on expectations the U.S. interest rates could rise next month.

European shares were lower in early trade, although the region's stock markets were set for their best monthly performance since late 2015, as the euro's weakness on currency markets propped up export-driven companies.

The pan-European STOXX 600 and FTSEurofirst 300 indexes were in the red, having hit peaks in early trade. The broader MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 countries, was up a tad at 1,676.96 points, its highest since late April.

Earlier, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended 1 percent higher, extending a 1.4 percent rally in the previous day. It is up 3.4 percent for May, thanks to a weaker yen.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, gained 0.3 percent to 95.795, not far from a two-month high of 95.968 and up nearly 2.9 percent for the month.

The dollar has risen recently on expectations of higher U.S. rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that the central bank should hike rates "in the coming months" if economic growth picks up and the labour market continues to improve.

"The question for me here is whether the dollar can carry on rallying on the prospect of the Fed raising rates faster over the next 18 months than is priced in, as opposed to rallying only on expectations of a move in June or July," said Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Societe Generale.

Investors are awaiting key data this week before taking fresh positions. May's U.S. private-sector ISM manufacturing data, due on Wednesday, and non-farm payrolls report on Friday will be scrutinised and solid readings could further heighten expectations for a move as soon as the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on June 14-15.

Economists predict the jobs report will show that U.S. employers added 170,000 jobs, slightly more than they did in April. Hourly wages are expected to show a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. [ECONUS]

CHINESE YUAN EYED

Investors were also keeping an eye on the weakening Chinese yuan with worries about growth in the world's second-largest economy creeping back. The yuan was on track for its second largest monthly fall on record after the central bank softened its midpoint to a 5-year low. [CNY/]

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A businessman is reflected in an electronic board displaying Japan's Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, April 18, 2016. REUTERS/Toru Hanai

"The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates will, in due course, test both the global markets and China's policy to manage its currency," said Jade Fu, investment manager at Heartwood Investment Management.

"In an environment of dollar strength, the People's Bank of China may well be forced to further depreciate the renminbi, risking the possibility of a one-off currency intervention."

In the commodities sphere, moves in crude oil futures were limited before Thursday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Most analysts did not expect any changes in the group's flat-out production.

There was no Monday settlement for U.S. crude futures because of the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. They were up 0.3 percent at $49.46 on Tuesday, lifted by the start of the peak demand summer driving season in the U.S. They are set for an 8.2 percent jump in May.

Brent crude futures were lower at $49.36 a barrel, but poised for a gain of nearly 3 percent for the month.

The recent recovery in risk sentiment in recent days pushed gold to its biggest monthly decline since November. Spot gold climbed 0.5 percent to 1,210.93 per ounce, but was headed for a slide of over 6 percent for the month.

(additional reporting by Sudip Kar-Gupta and Jemima Kelly; Editing by Tom Heneghan)

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