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Cardinals season-ending report: Unfamiliar October, offseason

[October 04, 2016] The Sports Xchange

ST. LOUIS -- It was a winning season for the St. Louis Cardinals, but by the high standards the franchise has set for itself over the last 15 years, it was a disappointing season too.

Beset by inconsistent pitching and poor defense, St. Louis squandered a stunning power display and missed the National League playoffs for the first time since 2010.

An 86-76 record wasn't good enough to squeak out a wild card bid, thanks to six damaging September losses against the two worst teams in the NL Central -- Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

Four of those defeats were by one or two runs, including a 2-1 setback to the Reds on Sept. 28 in which the Cardinals stranded the potential tying run at third in three of the last four innings.

"It's a disappointment that we won't be able to watch baseball games in St. Louis deep into October," manager Mike Matheny said after Sunday's season-ending 10-4 win over Pittsburgh.

"There are a lot of teams that are probably happy the St. Louis Cardinals aren't playing any more. I think this team had the potential of making a run deep into October."

Matheny will never get to see if his theory could have held true. Now he, along with general manager John Mozeliak, have to fix the things that went wrong.

One thing the Cardinals must think about is run prevention. The starting pitching went from some of baseball's best to average. Carlos Martinez became the ace as Adam Wainwright looked like an aging pitcher for the first time.

Michael Wacha was off most of the year and missed time with right shoulder inflammation. Jaime Garcia was more up and down than an elevator -- saving his worst pitching for the season's last seven weeks -- and free agent signee Mike Leake was victimized by bad location and bad defense.

Errors, plays not made and poor decisions hampered the pitching staff all year. The much-ballyhooed versatility trumpeted by management led to shaky glovework. At one point in mid-July, St. Louis led all of baseball in errors, forcing its pitchers to throw extra pitches and no doubt leading to the decline in run prevention.

A steady stream of injuries colored the Cardinals' effort, too. From February, when shortstop Jhonny Peralta injured his thumb and had to miss the season's first two months, the team was constantly reshaping its roster.

Injuries wiped out the pitching depth, forcing the team to call up prospects Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver in August. Weaver made some promising starts and then fizzled down the stretch, but Reyes was just filthy, beating the Chicago Cubs three times and firing seven scoreless innings in San Francisco on Sept. 19.

Offense was the reason St. Louis reached Game 162 with its postseason chances intact. The team led the NL with 225 homers, nearly 100 more than it cracked in 2015, and became only the fourth team in league history to have six players belt 20 or more.

Jedd Gyorko led the longball brigade with 30, a career high, and belted an NL-high 23 after the All-Star break. Brandon Moss added 28, Randal Grichuk 24, Stephen Piscotty 22, Matt Carpenter 21 and Matt Holliday 20.

There were other bright spots.

Rookie shortstop Aledmys Diaz overcame a rash of errors the first two months and settled in defensively while batting .300 and establishing himself as a future face of the franchise. Korean product Seung Hwan Oh replaced ineffective Trevor Rosenthal as the closer and notched 19 saves.

However, in the end, there was emptiness. Players used to playing meaningful games late in October were saying their last goodbyes Sunday instead of preparing for the playoffs.

"It's very disappointing," Diaz said. "You go to spring training every year with hopes of going to the World Series. But right now, we have to focus on the offseason."

An offseason which starts too early for the Cardinals' liking.

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MLB Team Report - St. Louis Cardinals - NOTES, QUOTES

2016: 86-76, second place in National League Central

TEAM MVP: On a team with no clear-cut pick, INF Matt Carpenter edges SS Aledmys Diaz, C Yadier Molina and RHP Carlos Martinez for the award. Carpenter was on pace for a 30-homer, 100-RBI year from the leadoff spot when he sustained a right oblique injury July 6 and had to sit out a month. Carpenter wasn't the same hitter after returning, but still finished at .271 with 21 homers and 68 RBI in 129 games. He also walked 81 times, becoming the only National League player to walk at least 80 times in the last three years.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: RHP Trevor Rosenthal came into the season as the team's lockdown closer and lost his job before the calendar hit July, the result of too many walks and too many blown saves. It turned out Rosenthal was pitching with shoulder pain and wound up on the 15-day DL. When he came back in September, albeit in a low-leverage role, he looked much better and gave St. Louis three key innings in a critical win Oct. 1 over Pittsburgh. He finished 2-4 with a 4.46 ERA, but will figure into the late-inning mix next year.

TOP PROSPECT: RHP Alex Reyes dazzled after being called up on Aug. 9 due to a plethora of injuries to the pitching staff. Given a role as a piggyback reliever at first, Reyes eventually joined the rotation down the stretch and was the team's second-best starter behind Carlos Martinez at the end, posting three wins over the Chicago Cubs and another at San Francisco with seven scoreless innings. Reyes went 4-1, 1.57 in 12 outings and should be a candidate for the rotation next year.

PLAYER NOTES:

--SS Aledmys Diaz was thrust into a starting spot early in the season because of injuries to Jhonny Peralta and Ruben Tejada and established himself as a foundation piece. Diaz batted .300 with 17 homers and 65 RBI and represented the team at the All-Star Game, identifying himself as a player capable of stepping up in pressure situations. Diaz could eventually profile as a third baseman if the Cardinals opt to trade for a better defender at shortstop, but his bat will play for years to come.

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--RHP Seung Hwan Oh was supposed to serve as a setup man for Rosenthal but became the closer in late June and finished the year with 19 saves and a 1.92 ERA in 76 outings. Oh fanned 103 batters in 79 2/3 innings, living up to his nicknames of Stone Buddha and the Final Closer, and figures to go into the spring as the closer. In an offseason full of questionable moves and non-moves, Oh might have been the best signing of general manager John Mozeliak.

--INF Jedd Gyorko might have been GM John Mozeliak's second-best transaction behind RHP Seung Hwan Oh. Acquired from San Diego for OF Jon Jay, Gyorko surprised everyone by popping a career and team-high 30 homers in only 400 at-bats. What's more, 17 of those homers either tied games or gave St. Louis a lead. Gyorko jacked an NL-high 23 homers after the All-Star break, more than making up for a .243 average and sketchy defense, although it wasn't his fault that manager Mike Matheny asked him to play so often at shortstop.

--C Yadier Molina turned back the clock somewhat down the stretch, finishing at .307 for the fifth .300-plus season of his career as he hit in the third spot at season's end. Molina bopped 38 doubles, homered eight times and knocked in 58 runs while making a career-high 146 starts. While Molina threw out just 21 percent of attempted basestealers, Cardinal pitchers did a brutal job holding runners on, so not all of that was Molina's fault.

QUOTE TO NOTE: "The focus was to take care of our own business. That's the danger of getting down to this, because it truly wasn't in our hands. It was in the hands of other teams." -- Manager Mike Matheny, on his team and how it approached the season's final days.

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MLB Team Report - St. Louis Cardinals - ROSTER REPORT

St. Louis will hope for better health, pitching and defense in 2017. The Cardinals could sport one of the better rotations in the National League with the return of Lance Lynn, the continued ascension of Carlos Martinez and the maturation of Alex Reyes, along with a return to form from Adam Wainwright. However, can the offense belt another 225 homers or was 2016 an outlier?

BIGGEST NEEDS: St. Louis was below average almost across the board on defense, hampering its pitchers throughout the year as they had to throw extra pitches to get out of jams. The Cardinals have $17 million of payroll coming off the books with the likelihood that LF Matt Holliday has played his last game for the team, so they could use that money to go get a center fielder and/or shortstop to improve the defense. If they go for a shortstop, look for Aledmys Diaz to move to third or even second. A true cleanup hitter is also a possibility, such as Toronto's Edwin Encarnacion.

FREE AGENTS: LHP Jaime Garcia, LF Matt Holliday, OF/1B Brandon Moss, RHP Seung Hwan Oh

Garcia struggled so badly down the stretch that it's possible the club could eat the $500,000 buyout on his $12 million deal for next year and turn him loose. Holliday is basically gone, but Moss is a different matter. His monstrous slump in the final month -- he was 7-of-95 at one point -- might have cost him money in the open market and could make him more affordable for St. Louis. Moss actually had a great season going until then. Oh will be back with an affordable club option of $6 million, especially coming off a great rookie year.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE: 1B Matt Adams, RHP Carlos Martinez, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, LHP Kevin Siegrist, RHP Michael Wacha

Adams is no longer seen as an everyday player. After two good seasons as a starter, capped by a big finish to 2016, Martinez could be a candidate for a long-term deal. Rosenthal and Wacha are in the same boat, coming off injury-plagued seasons that could be termed disappointing. Siegrist has been a reliable setup man for most of his 3 1/2 years with the club.

IN LIMBO: What will the Cardinals do with 2B Kolten Wong? He signed a 5-year deal for $24.5 million during spring training, then slumped so badly at season's beginning that he wound up at Triple-A Memphis. Wong played a bit better down the stretch, but there's a train of thought that suggests the team could use him as bait in a trade this offseason. Even if he returns, there's no guarantee he cracks the Opening Day lineup.

MEDICAL WATCH:

--RHP Lance Lynn (Tommy John surgery in November 2015) is on track to go full speed in spring training. Lynn made three rehab appearances in August but elected to wrap it up after that, even though some thought he could help the St. Louis bullpen in September.

--RHP Seth Maness (Tommy John surgery in August 2016) probably will miss the first part of next year. Maness was an important part of the bullpen from the middle part of 2013 through the 2015 season with his ability to induce double-play balls.

--LHP Tyler Lyons (stress reaction in right knee) should be able to return for spring training. Lyons missed the season's last two months, costing the staff a valuable swingman who can fill every role from situational lefty to starter.

--RHP Jordan Walden (right shoulder strain) hasn't pitched since April 2015, and there is no indication that he will be able to come back any time soon. He tried to rehab this summer but had to cut it short.

--RHP Mitch Harris (right elbow surgery in June 2016) couldn't pitch this year because of nerve issues, and it is not known when he will be able to return. Harris was injured during spring training.

--LHP Marco Gonzales (Tommy John surgery in April 2016) might be able to return during the first half of next season.

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