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Orioles season-ending report: Devastated but moving forward

[October 06, 2016] BALTIMORE -- The Baltimore Orioles, according to many accounts, were not even supposed to make the playoffs this season. A number of pundits and experts picked them fourth or fifth in the American League East when they eventually finished tied for second place and earned a spot in the Wild Card Game.

And while the question of if manager Buck Showalter should have brought closer Zach Britton -- arguably the best in the game -- into the Wild Card contest in Toronto will linger for a long time, the fact remains that the Orioles made postseason play for the third time in five years.

Now, how do they take the next step forward?

Analyzing this team is not difficult. They hit a lot of home runs -- led the majors, in fact, with 253 -- and played great defense with a stellar bullpen led by Britton and his perfect 47-for-47 record in save chances plus a miniscule 0.54 ERA. But the starting pitching, while much better in September, struggled the rest of the season and forced the Orioles to score a lot of runs to win.

Still, Baltimore stayed in first place for much of the season. The Orioles now must make some tough decisions. Do they add another veteran solid starting pitcher? Should they re-sign catcher Matt Wieters, Mark Trumbo and even late-season pick-up Michael Bourn?

Wieters is one of the top defensive catchers in baseball. Trumbo led the majors with 47 homers, and the Orioles stole him from Seattle last winter. Bourn really gave the team a lift late with his speed and defense.

Baltimore needs to figure out where they're going because they're starting to get some young players like first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini and catcher Chance Sisco ready to make an impact in the majors.

Mancini hit three homers in a week in late September and made it on to the Wild Card roster while Sisco is about a year away.

"This is the American League East, it's a tough division," said GM Dan Duquette in an interview with the team's radio station, 105.7 The Fan. "Every year, night in and night out, it's the toughest division in baseball."

Showalter often talks about the need to be prepared since one never knows what the baseball gods will throw at you. The Orioles probably want to have more starting pitching depth next year along with better defense in right field, a big reason that Showalter's already talked about wanting to re-sign free agent Bourn.

"Baseball has a way of throwing you a curveball, and you've got to be ready for it," Showalter said. "What appears like something on paper, it's completely something away from the norm as we perceive it."

In the end, Baltimore wants to probably avoid the one-game, winner-take-all format of the Wild Card that broke their hearts this time around in the 5-2 loss at Toronto this week. Winning the division would get it past that.

The Orioles were happy to make the playoffs this year and want more in 2017. That's why Showalter probably won't view much of the Texas-Toronto series.

"Watching somebody else do what we want to do is painful," he said.

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MLB Team Report - Baltimore Orioles - NOTES, QUOTES

2016: 89-73, tied for second in American League East, lost AL wild-card game to Toronto Blue Jays

TEAM MVP: 3B Manny Machado struggled in last few weeks but was the team's MVP. He hit .294 with 37 homers and 96 RBIs and again showed why he's arguably the top defensive third baseman in baseball. He might have helped more in the field than he did at the plate because of the number of runs and hits that his skill with the glove denied opposing hitters. The scary part for opponents -- he is just 24 and probably will improve.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Although 1B Chris Davis finished with 38 homers and 84 RBIs, he batted just .221 and struck out 219 times, the most in the major leagues. The Orioles signed him to a long-term deal last winter but some nagging injuries may have been affecting him. Still, he had a great season defensively, and the Orioles hope for fewer strikeouts and a higher average next year.

TOP PROSPECT: There's two prospects who could make some noise soon. DH/1B Trey Mancini could very well be in the Opening Day lineup next year. He was called up in late September and promptly belted three homers in a week. The 24-year old hit 20 homers and drove in 68 runs combined at Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. C Chance Sisco hit .317 this year, almost all at Bowie, and the 21-year old should be ready for the big show by 2018. The question might be where to put him if there's a catcher already there. Many consider him the top prospect in the organization, but Mancini will make some noise next year.

PLAYER NOTES:

--3B Manny Machado turned in what might be his best overall year. He hit 37 homers with 96 RBIs and had a .294 batting average while again proving to be one of the top defensive third basemen in the game. The local media picked him as the team's MVP, and the question now is if he can take it to another level. He's only 24 and has become a major part of Baltimore's success.

--LHP Zach Britton literally was perfect this season. He went 2-1 with an 0.54 ERA -- that's not a typo, folks -- and 47 saves in 47 chances. The left-hander should be a Cy Young candidate and maybe make some noise in the Most Valuable Player voting. His brutal hard sinker broke many bats and became more effective when Britton began using off-speed stuff more. He should and give the Orioles a solid anchor in the back of the bullpen again next season.

--DH/RF Mark Trumbo led the majors with 47 homers after the Orioles stole him from the Mariners last winter. He faded a bit in the second half -- he's done that before in his career -- before coming on late with some crucial homers. The question now is if the Orioles will re-sign him or let him walk like Nelson Cruz after the 2014 season.

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--CF Adam Jones has grown into the team leader on and off the field. He battled some injuries early and finished with a .265 average plus 29 homers and 83 RBIs. Jones remains one of the game's top defensive center fielders and did a good job in the leadoff spot. But like many of the other free-swinging Orioles, Jones swung a lot at first pitches. If he remains at the top spot in the lineup, drawing walks would help the team. He walked a career-high 39 times this year.

--RHP Chris Tillman struggled late after batting shoulder bursitis in late August/early September but still finished 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA. Tillman didn't make it out of the fifth inning in the Wild Card game in Toronto but manager Buck Showalter pulled him quickly as the Jays often hit the right-hander hard. Is Tillman going to remain the ace or will he be behind the rapidly-developing RHP Kevin Gausman and RHP Dylan Bundy. Either way, the Orioles bring a strong top group of three starters to the table next spring.

--C Matt Wieters developed into one of baseball's top catchers during his time with Baltimore. The question now is will the Orioles re-sign him -- or be able to -- since he becomes a free agent this winter. Wieters hit .243 with 17 homers and 66 RBI and made another All-Star appearance due more to his strong defensive skills. Do they want to give the 30-year old catcher a long-term deal? That might be one of the biggest questions the team must answer this winter.

QUOTE TO NOTE: "Our guys have scored enough runs to win games, and how we got to that point, I love how people try to define what small ball is. Sometimes a guy working the count and getting to 3-0 and hitting a home run at Yankee Stadium like (C Matt) Wieters is small ball, to work the count like that and get a hittable pitch. But people always associate it with power. It's about scoring runs. If we get that and we have different people show up, we would play a different game. It's worked out OK." -- Orioles manager Buck Showalter.

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MLB Team Report - Baltimore Orioles - ROSTER REPORT

BIGGEST NEEDS: The Orioles will need to make a decision about their corner outfield spots and, most notably the starting rotation. Manager Buck Showalter said during the final week that he'd like to see the Orioles bring back free agent OF Michael Bourn, who gives the team something (speed) it doesn't have much of. He also could serve as a lead-off hitter at times. But the starting pitching remains the biggest question. RHPs Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy really were strong at different points of the season, especially late, while RHP Ubaldo Jimenez became one of the top pitchers -- also later on. The question is if the Orioles will go with this group as their core or look for a left-handed veteran starter. Then, they'll need to decide what to do about RHP Yovani Gallardo, who battled injuries and inconsistency in 2016.

FREE AGENTS: C Matt Wieters, DH/OF Mark Trumbo, DH Pedro Alvarez, OF/IF Steve Pearce, OF Nolan Reimold, LHP Brian Duensing, RHP Tommy Hunter, OF Drew Stubbs, OF Michael Bourn

Trumbo led the major leagues in homers but since his defense isn't great, will the Orioles give him a qualifying offer or try to do something like re-sign Bourn as a second corner outfielder and just let the big bat walk away? They've done it before. Wieters signed a one-year deal last year but wants to hit the open market this winter and despite batting .243, the All-Star hit 17 homers and drove in 66 runs two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Wieters remains one of the top defensive catchers in baseball but will turn 31 next year, and the question is if the Orioles want to hand him the kind of long-term deal he's seeking. Or will they be OK to wait for prospect Chance Sisco, a catcher who could be with the Orioles in 2018? Alvarez came on late and gave the team a good left-handed bat but prospect 1B/DH Trey Mancini could fill that role. Pearce would be a big help, and Showalter wants him. Reimold's time might be up with Bourn gets re-signed. Same with Stubbs, especially if OF Joey Rickard is back and healthy. Duensing and Hunter both helped late this season, and there could be a role for one or both next year, especially the latter, whom the Orioles re-traded for this season.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE: LHP Zach Britton, RHP Chris Tillman, 3B Manny Machado, RHP Vance Worley, IF/OF Ryan Flaherty, RHP Brad Brach, RHP Kevin Gausman, 2B Jonathan Schoop, RHP Dylan Bundy, C Francisco Pena.

Britton, Tillman, Machado, Brach, Gausman, Schoop and Bundy will likely get some good-sized bumps in pay as all played a role in helping the Orioles make the playoffs once more. Flaherty and Worley are helpers who didn't help as much but should get some raise while Pena just played a handful of games, mainly when C Caleb Joseph was hurt.

IN LIMBO: Trumbo and Wieters, as just mentioned, could be the two top decisions for position players. The possible re-signing of Bourn also could help the team. It will be interesting to see how the Orioles deal with these three. The Trumbo situation could be a repeat of the DH/OF Nelson Cruz events of two years ago when the Orioles let him walk after one great season. It's doubtful there's many big-name players the team would shop around. DH Pedro Alvarez had a good year with the Orioles but might have a tougher time getting re-signed due to rookie Mancini, who's right-handed and hit three homers in a week when getting called up late in the season. LHP Brian Duensing made it back from surgery to help in late September out of the bullpen, but the question is if the team thinks LHP Donnie Hart, who did a good job in limited action as a rookie, can handle the situational lefty job himself next year. Or if they want more than one lefty out there. RHP Yovani Gallardo could be a pitcher to be shopped if the Orioles want a left-hander or a different starter.

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