2016 Year in Review
By John Fulton, Logan County Extension

[October 28, 2016]  The 2016 year has certainly been another interesting one. One of the prime factors making things interesting was the number of rain events. I logged 66 days with precipitation at my house between April 1 and September 30. Of course, some of these didn’t amount to a lot of accumulated precipitation. The frequency did, however, keep producers from field operations for large blocks of time. The end result was most of the corn in the county being planted in a week-long block the third week of April, and many of the soybeans being planted a month later during the third week of May.

Whenever planting is done in a short period of time, as relayed by a mentor years ago, you are destined for great things – or doomed for bad ones. The risk management of staggered planting goes out the window in a nutshell. Yield reports have been on the side of great things for the most part to this point. Yields were predicted to challenge the lofty levels set in the record year of 2014. In that year, Logan County corn and soybean yields were 230.8 bushels to the acre for corn and 63.7 for soybeans. While official yields from the National Ag Statistics Service won’t be available until late February, appearances are we may fall short of those figures on corn and challenge the soybean yield numbers.

Challenges to the crops have existed. Diplodia ear rot in corn and Sudden Death Syndrome in soybeans are two of the more common problems which took bushels off of our potential yields. And, of course, water caused some issues. Water problems were more common in low-lying areas, where limited replanting occurred. The only real dry periods we experienced this year were the last half of June, and then as we were into the harvest season. Both of these periods did offer some benefits, as the June period forced crops to root further into the soil to seek moisture and the harvest period – well, that allowed for harvest to proceed.

The financial situation remains a major topic of discussion. According to University of Illinois projections, negative returns on corn will continue through 2017. Soybeans are projected to show a slight profit in 2016, and turn negative on return for 2017. These figures include all costs, which may not be applicable in all situations, but they do show the tightening economic situation across the agriculture spectrum. The University budgets do show a decrease in land costs of $33 from 2015 levels to projected 2017. There are also some USDA safety net programs which have recently made payments for the 2015 crop year to some producers.

In the livestock area, prices have decreased a minimum of 20% since mid-summer. Hog prices have once again been hit the hardest with decreases exceeding 30%. Of course, in-place contracts for grain and livestock may temporarily insulate producers, but new contracts are at substantially reduced levels. The bright spot for livestock producers has been the reduced feed costs, at the expense of the crop producers.

The trend to locally produced food continues to gain steam. One great indicator has been the success of the latest Farmer’s Market in Lincoln. Reports of high attendance, and sales by vendors, indicate people want to know where the food comes from, how it was produced, and be able to speak with the person who grew it. This isn’t just a local phenomenon, as it is playing out all over the country. This is in addition to people who grow their own, and then want to preserve the food by canning, freezing, or dehydrating. What was once becoming a lost art, has returned to some prominence.

As we work to finish harvest this year, many are eying next year – and the prospects for improved income. While substantial yields from this year will bolster income now, they will tend to keep a lid on price movement for next year. Of course there are outside factors such as ethanol use for corn, food ingredient processing such as cooking oil, and the potential for increased consumption for livestock producers. Exports to other countries, needing additional commodities for their food and industrial uses, may also increase consumption - and lead to eventual higher commodity prices.

John Fulton
County Extension Director
University of Illinois Extension
700 South Airport Drive
Springfield, IL 62707 http://web.extension.illinois.edu/lms/
[e-mail]
phone [phone] fax [phone] Serving Logan, Menard, and Sangamon
Counties

 

Read all the articles in our new
Fall 2016 Logan County
Farm Outlook Magazine

Title CLICK ON TITLES TO GO TO PAGES	Page
Year in Review	4
Sustaining the farm	6
On-farm storage helps with profitability in 2016	10
How commodity prices and profits are affecting equipment sales	15
Agricultural science and technology:  Have we gone too far?	15
The benefits of crop rotation	22
Finding some profit:  The benefits of growing organic corn and soybeans	26
Growing alternative crops for more profit	32
Is the Illinois Nutrient Reduction Strategy counter intuitive to profits?	41