Global stocks sag as bond 'bloodbath' shows no let up

[October 28, 2016]  By Jamie McGeever

LONDON (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Friday, curbed by yet another rise in global bond yields that also lifted the dollar to a three-month high against the yen as investors grew more confident that U.S. interest rates will rise before the end of the year.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. and euro zone yields rose to their highest since May before settling, and 10-year British yields were on track for their biggest monthly rise since January 2009, the second-biggest in more than 20 years.

Investors' focus on Friday turns to third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) figures after Thursday's upbeat jobless claims, manufacturing and home sales data strengthened the case for the Fed to raise rates by year-end. [ECONUS]

Next week the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England all deliver their latest policy decisions. The Fed is 90 percent certain to hold fire, according to fed fund futures pricing on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. But the chance of a rise in December, after the U.S. presidential election, is put at 72 percent.

"The concern is that central banks will hit the brakes on stimulus," said DZ Bank strategist Daniel Lenz. "The U.S. (Q3 GDP) data release is a very important one, as a good number could increase expectations for a rate hike in December."

Europe's index of leading 300 shares  was last down 0.3 percent at 1,346 points, Germany's DAX slipped by 0.2 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 inched up by 0.1 percent.

MSCI's global stock index fell 0.1 percent while its broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3 percent, pressured by the prospect of easy money flows being crimped should the Fed tighten policy.

The one bright spot in Asia was Japan, where the weak yen helped to lift the Nikkei 225 index <.N225> by 0.6 percent for a weekly rise of 1.5 percent.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a rise of up to 0.2 percent at the open on Wall Street <ESc1>.

HIGHER AND HIGHER

In a week marked by deep slides in prices of U.S. and European debt, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield <US10YT=RR> climbed to a five-month high on Friday just below 1.88 percent, helped by surging British gilt and German bund yields.

The 10-year gilt yield is up nearly 20 basis points on the week to levels not seen since Britain's vote in June to leave the European Union and has risen more than 50 basis points this month.

Bond yields have risen recently amid concerns that ultra-easy policies practiced by the major central banks could have their limits and may not be continued indefinitely.

People are reflected in a board showing market indices in Tokyo July 28, 2015. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

Deutsche Bank's John Reid on Friday said that bond markets are living a "nightmare" moment, Rabobank analysts deemed the recent sell-off a "bloodbath" and Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned of an "angry rise" in yields in the weeks ahead.

Germany's 10-year bund yield rose to 0.219 percent on Friday, its highest since early May, and marking a sharp turnaround from the record low of minus 0.20 percent in July under the European Central Bank's extensive monetary easing.

ECB Governing Council member Philip Lane said on Friday that the ECB will provide stimulus to the euro zone economy until the bloc's inflation rate is on the path towards its target, with March next year providing an important "staging post".

Boosted by the spike in Treasury yields, the dollar scaled a three-month peak of 105.42 yen  and the rise in euro zone yields lifted the euro by a quarter of a percent to $1.0924 on Friday.

The dollar index was little changed at 98.880 after rising about 0.2 percent on Thursday. It was on track for a weekly gain of about 0.3 percent, having struck a nine-month peak along the way.

Sterling fell 0.4 percent against the dollar to $1.2110 and an eight-day low against the euro after Northern Ireland's High Court ruled that the law of the province did not restrict the British prime minister's ability to trigger an exit from the European Union.

In commodities, crude oil gave back some of Thursday's gains. Brent crude was down 0.3 percent at $50.33 a barrel and U.S. crude was down 0.4 percent at $49.50.

(Editing by David Goodman)

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