OPEC points to larger
2017 oil surplus as rivals keep pumping
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[September 12, 2016]
By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC raised its
forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2017 as new
fields come online and U.S. shale drillers prove more resilient than
expected to cheap crude, pointing to a larger surplus in the market
Demand for crude from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries will average 32.48 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017,
OPEC said in a monthly report on Monday. That is down from the
previous forecast of 33.01 million bpd.
The prospect of a larger surplus than expected adds to the challenge
of OPEC and non-members such as Russia, who are making a renewed
attempt to restrain supplies. Oil is trading at $47 a barrel, half
its level of mid-2014, as a supply glut that OPEC hoped cheap oil
would banish sticks around.
OPEC revised up its 2016 and 2017 non-OPEC supply forecasts, citing
factors including the start up of Kazakhstan's Kashagan oilfield and
a lower-than-expected decline in U.S. shale output, and said the
immediate outlook was for more production.
"It is expected that there will be higher non-OPEC production in the
second half of 2016 compared to the first half," OPEC said in the
OPEC expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 200,000 bpd in 2017, versus
a previously forecast 150,000 bpd decline. The revision is mostly
due to Kashagan, OPEC said, as the long-delayed giant field finally
On top of that, the forecast for this year was revised up by 180,000
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The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) is pictured at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 21,
2016. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
OPEC itself kept output near a multi-year high in August, pumping 33.24 million
bpd, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, down 23,000 bpd
from July's figure, the report said.
The July figure is the highest since at least 2008, according to a Reuters
review of past OPEC reports.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by Susan Thomas)
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