Trump closes in on Clinton's projected
electoral lead: Reuters/Ipsos Poll
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[September 12, 2016]
By Chris Kahn
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Republican Donald
Trump appears to have carved out a wider path to the White House as a
number of states including Florida and Ohio are no longer considered
likely wins for Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to the
latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project released on Saturday.
The project, which combines opinion polls with an analysis of voting
patterns under different election scenarios, still shows Clinton would
have the best chance of winning the presidency if the Nov. 8 election
were held today. Yet Trump has caught up to her level of support in
Clinton now has an 83 percent chance of winning the election by an
average of 47 votes in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately
selects the president. In late August, the States of the Nation
estimated that Clinton had a 95 percent chance of winning by an average
of 108 electoral votes.
Over the past few weeks, Clinton's lead in the national polls has
slipped considerably. Polls tend to narrow as Election Day nears, and
the Clinton campaign has struggled to overcome controversy about how she
handled classified information while serving as secretary of state.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters showed an 8-point lead
for Clinton has vanished since the last week of August.
Clinton is still favored to win 17 states, including many with large,
urban populations such as New York, New Jersey and California that
heavily influence the outcome of the election. Trump would likely win 23
states, many of them with smaller populations.
The number of states projected for Clinton has dropped over the past few
weeks. Two of those states, Ohio and Florida, were considered likely
wins for Clinton in late August. Now the candidates are about even in
support. Five more states, including Michigan and North Carolina are
also up for grabs.
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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is illuminated by a
spotlight as he points to supporters in the crowd after speaking at
a campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida, U.S., September 9, 2016.
The sample size was insufficient to determine the outcome in
Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska and the District of Columbia, though Alaska
usually votes Republican and Washington D.C. for the Democratic
The Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project is driven by an
online survey that gathers responses from about 15,000 people per
week. Their responses are weighted according to the latest
population estimates, and each respondent is ranked according to
their likelihood to vote.
Once the poll is complete, the project tallies the levels of support
and estimated error for both candidates, and then runs multiple
election simulations given their respective support.
(Click here: http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation for the
projectís interactive tool that allows users to set turnout targets
for various voter groups.)
(Editing by Richard Valdmanis and Grant McCool)
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