U.S. travel ban row halts dollar recovery

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[January 30, 2017]  By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Monday as investors sought the traditional security of the Japanese yen after new U.S. immigration curbs put the spotlight back on President Donald Trump's protectionist bent and the risks it poses for the economy.

A packet of former U.S. President Abraham Lincoln five-dollar bill currency is inspected at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington March 26, 2015. REUTERS/Gary Cameron/File Photo -

The dollar had begun to climb at the end of last week after its worst month in five, as expectations of higher inflation and tax cuts to spur growth under the new president pushed U.S. government bond yields higher.

That was halted by a combination of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth data on Friday and the uproar that followed Trump's order restricting entry to the United States for travelers from seven Muslim-majority nations.

"Concerns on protectionism appear to be rising after President Trump’s executive order to restrict immigration," said Adam Cole, head of G10 FX strategy with RBC in London.

After an Asian session becalmed by Chinese New Year holidays, the yen rose 0.4 percent to 114.58 yen per dollar <JPY=> in morning trade in Europe. The greenback was flat at $1.0695 per euro <EUR=> and marginally higher at $1.2537 against sterling.

The euro drew some support from a rise in European government bond yields to their highest in a year after regional data showed solid rises in annual German inflation. That came at the start of a week dominated by central bank meetings in the United States, Japan and Britain.

The bond market, however, also suggested euro investors were pricing in more risk from France's presidential election in April after the selection of a more radical leftist candidate by the French Socialists at the weekend.

A stronger dollar was one of 2017's big calls for many investment banks and asset managers at the end of last year but that faith has been undermined by worries about how U.S. trade and diplomacy will pan out under Trump's presidency.

At the top of the list are concerns that the new administration may actively pursue a weaker dollar as part of efforts to change its trading relationship with China and others.

"The weak U.S. GDP is doing the dollar no favors. But it also takes courage to keep buying the dollar, considering what Trump has said about the kind of a currency policy he could pursue," said Daisuke Karakama, market economist at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo.

(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo; Editing by Gareth Jones)

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