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The
VDMA is Germany's largest industrial association, with over a
million workers and 2016 sales of 220 billion euros ($237
billion). Its members include large companies such as Siemens <SIEGn.DE>
as well as thousands of medium-sized firms.
Carl Martin Welcker said U.S. business sentiment was good and
should be supported this year by the absence of last year's
election uncertainty as well as a rising oil price that would
stimulate investments in machinery.
"I don't expect exports to the United States to fall. On the
contrary, I think they should increase," Welcker said in an
interview, but added: "Business is always sentiment. It can fall
just as fast."
Welcker stuck to his forecast for just 1 percent output growth
by the VDMA's members this year, after higher demand for German
machinery from other euro zone countries drove a 9-percent
increase in engineering orders in January.
"A month is not much to go on," said Welcker, ahead of the
publication of February orders on Thursday. He cited Britain
leaving the European Union, French and German elections, Trump,
and a Turkish referendum as factors making 2017 hard to predict.
Welcker said the VDMA's exports to "important countries like
China" had started the year better than expected, but sales in
its biggest market, Germany, were roughly stagnant, highlighting
the risks to domestic production of rising labor and energy
costs.
Brexit, which was formally triggered on Wednesday, was the topic
of much discussion in the industry but had not yet had any real
effect in terms of causing German engineering firms to change
their investment plans, he said.
(Editing by Alexander Smith)
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