LDN - Sports

Hall of Fame class could swell to record size

[January 23, 2018] PHOENIX -- The Hall of Fame is in the midst of an historic open-door policy, and it is certain to continue this year.

The Baseball Writers Association of America have voted 12 players into the Hall in the past four years, the largest group in a similar stretch since the first four years after the Hall was founded in 1936.

It is no stretch to believe that at least four more will be added when the new class is announced Wednesday:

--First-time candidates Chipper Jones and Jim Thome are overwhelming favorites to reach the required 75 percent of ballots cast. Jones will be the 10th Hall of Famer with at least 450 homers and 150 stolen bases, and only four Hall of Famers have more homers than Thome's 612. It will not be close. They are in.

--Recent history suggests that Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero will take the final step after coming close last year, when Hoffman received 74.0 percent of the vote and Guerrero received 71.7 percent. Over the past 20 years, the eight players to receive between 70 and 75 percent of the vote one year all were elected the following year -- Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar, Jim Rice, Rich Gossage, Gary Carter and Don Sutton.

--Momentum is building for the inclusion of closer Hoffman and designated hitter Edgar Martinez, players whose positions rather than their numbers are at the crux of the worthiness debate. The value of a closer is diminished in some modern analyses, which downplays the significance of the save. Hoffman has 601, second in major league history. Frank Thomas is the closest thing to a DH in the Hall now, and he played 971 games at first base. Martinez played 592 in the field, mostly at third base.

--Modern pitching metrics such as WAR and ERA+ bolster the case of both right-handers Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling, who also appear to be gaining ground in their fifth (Mussina) and sixth (Schilling) years on the ballot, according to Ryan Thibodaux's ballot tracker. Mussina, who went from 43.0 percent to 51.8 last year, is again trending up. So is Schilling, whose seven-point dip to 45 percent could be attributable to his outspoken politics. Mussina's 3.68 ERA would rank 74th among the 77 pitchers in the Hall, but his 83 WAR would be ahead of Bob Gibson and Tom Glavine. Schilling is in the same general vicinity.

--Stances seem to be softening on the so-called "steroid era" candidates such as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, whose Hall-worthy careers were overshadowed by their links to performance-enhancing substances. Bonds and Clemens, both in their sixth year on the ballot, probably will need another year or two because a cadre of firm "nos" remain.

[to top of second column]

A case could be made for those nine -- Jones, Thome, Hoffman, Guerrero, Martinez, Mussina, Schilling, Bonds and Clemens -- which would be the largest BBWAA class in history. And that doesn't even include Jack Morris and Alan Trammell, who were selected last month as part of the Hall of Fame class of 2018 by the Modern Era committee.

Only once have as many as five players been added by the BBWAAA at the same time, and that was when Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson comprised the first class in 1936.

The election of Jones and Thome would continue another trend. Eight of the 12 players added in the last four years were elected in their first year of eligibility -- Ivan Rodriguez last year, Ken Griffey in 2016, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz in 2015 and Glavine, Greg Maddux and Thomas in 2014.

The changing thoughts of the electorate have helped speed the approval process.

These days, voters are more likely to call a Hall of Famer a Hall of Famer right away. In previous years, some voters withheld support of candidates deemed not worthy of "first ballot" approval. Rogers Hornsby and Joe DiMaggio needed three years before they were elected. Cy Young, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker made it in their second year. It took Jimmie Foxx four tries.

One player voters have had hard time getting behind is Colorado outfielder Larry Walker, despite his power/speed numbers. Walker, in his eighth year on ballot, received 21.9 percent last year and has hovered around 20 percent on a crowded ballot.

Walker has a career slash line of .313/.400/.565 with 383 homers, 233 stolen bases and a 141 OPS+. He won seven Gold Gloves. Reggie Jackson, a first-ballot choice with 93.6 percent of the vote in 1993, had a .262/.356/.490 slash line with 563 homers, 228 stolen bases and a 139 OPS+. He did not win a Gold Glove.

--Field Level Media

Back to top