climate change model predicts an increase of extreme weather across
the globe, rising sea levels, dwindling food sources, erratic earth
heating and cooling, the disappearance of animal species, and in a
short time even the eradication of human civilization itself.
Most scientists across the world say that they believe the extreme
climate predictions and their models and the data support the
approaching climate apocalypse.
Other climate scientists and skeptics say that the conclusions are
all wrong and the data is distorted to support these beliefs and
that these extreme views are unwarranted. These pleas for calm
sensibility are being largely ignored, and the majority of people
now believe that a climate disaster is imminent.
Since farming is completely
dependent on weather, and recent weather prevented timely planting
and in many areas totally prevented planting, a look at the climate
of Logan County is warranted to attempt to predict if this is a
trend, and determine if other weather changes will continue to
interrupt Logan County agriculture. For this purpose, an informed
source right here in the county was contacted at the Lincoln's
National Weather Service Station, Senior Meteorologist Ed Shimon.
While most apocalyptic climate
scenarios are presented as future anecdotal disaster stories, Shimon
said that climate studies are actually the careful collection of
weather variables and data that has already gone past. Climate is
about the past. Weather is about right now. And forecasting is about
In climate studies, things like daily normal temperature, normal
rainfall, normal wind speeds and directions are gathered. Included
is information about the biggest weather causer, the sun. Charting
the energy being put out by the sun and conditions of solar storms
forms the backdrop for future weather expectations.
Shimon said that the sun has been taking a holiday for about the
last eleven years, with a minimum of solar storms. Solar storms put
out more radiation and that results in warming trends here on the
earth. Other sources say that since we have had little solar storm
activity, the weather data says that the total warming of the planet
over the last eight years is only .04 degrees, likely the result of
growing urban paved areas instead of other causes.
All this weather data has been
collected for only about the last 200 years, a short time in the
long history of our planet. It is charted in 30 year segments.
Extreme weather data is also gathered and charted, and the purpose
of all of this is to have comparison data of what has happened in
the past. And on this data meteorologists can form the framework for
future weather forecasts and predictions. Shimon said that the
expectation of future weather is predicted by the weather trends we
have had in the past.
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A look over the climate data
from the last thirty years shows that we have had much the same
weather as we have currently.
The average rainfall over that period has been 33.5 inches per year.
There have been some years when we have had less and some years,
like this one, when we have had significantly more.
The cycle of dry late summer months has been with us for the last
thirty years, with some years approaching or experiencing drought
Average temperature during the growing season has also been similar
month for month.
Wind speeds and directions have also been similar.
Along with the normal data is also extreme weather data, like the
winter storm of 1978 in which we got unseasonal (and unbelievable)
snowfall and cold, and the cold this last January when the
temperature in Congerville, IL reached a near record -36 degrees.
Meteorologist Ed Shimon said that periodic extreme weather episodes
When asked if the extreme apocalyptic future climate predictions had
any validity, Shimon remarked that "the earth is pretty resilient
and can take a lot of abuse." What we have had in weather is likely
to be what we will have in weather, with some seasonal variances.
And when asked, Shimon said the data didn't predict any real
climatic change, seasonal shifts, or apocalyptic climate emergencies
currently, or on the horizon for Logan County.
What we have had in the past is likely to be what we will have in
And that's real climate science!
Read all the articles in our
Fall Farm Outlook Magazine