Dollar boosted by trade deal optimism, Swedish crown hits four-month high

[November 27, 2019]  By Tommy Wilkes

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar pushed higher on Wednesday and flirted with the $1.10 level against the euro, boosted by yet more talk of a deal to resolve the U.S.-China trade dispute, while volatility in major currencies remained severely suppressed.

The greenback, which this week has risen in line with the more positive tone in trade negotiations, also increased versus the yen.

Wednesday sees little new data released in the euro zone but some revisions in the United States ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.

"Everything all told, the U.S. data is more likely to support the dollar, so that EUR-USD might well drop below the $1.10 mark again today," Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Euro/dollar volatility remains at near record low levels and the currency pair is largely stuck in tight trading ranges in the absence of major catalysts such as monetary policy shifts.

Andreas Larsen, an FX strategist at Nordea, also noted on Twitter that one-day realised volatility in euro/dollar on Tuesday hit a more than 20-year low.

One and three-month implied volatility - a gauge of expected price swings - in euro/dollar on Tuesday fell to their lowest level on record, indicating that investors do not expect significant movement in the coming months.

While investors are taking U.S. President Donald Trump at his word that Washington was in the "final throes" of work on a trade deal with Beijing, many have struggled to decide what it means for currencies.

Many analysts say investors cannot make up their minds on whether trade optimism and a buoyant risk-on mood is a positive for the safe-haven dollar, especially as the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates.

"We've been risk-on for a few days now and euro-dollar is down at $1.10. They've bought the dollar whereas at times in the past they've done the reverse," said Neil Mellor, an analyst at BNY Mellon.

The euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.1004, close to a two-week low of $1.0989 <EUR=EBS>.

A man poses with dollars, after buying them at a money exchange in Caracas, Febreuary 24, 2015. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index rose 0.1 percent to 98.322 <.DXY>.

The yen, usually bought when investors turn nervous, has faltered in recent sessions as equity markets soared. The dollar gained another 0.1 percent to 109.13 yen on Wednesday <JPY=EBS>.

CROWNS RALLIES

Sweden's hard-hit crown, which is closely linked to the outlook for global growth and trade, has rebounded in recent weeks. The crown briefly hit a new four-month high of 10.549 crowns per euro <EURSEK=D3>, although against the stronger dollar <SEK=D3> it was down slightly.
 

GRAPHIC: Euro vs Swedish crown - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/mkt/12/9208/9120/swedish%20crown.png

The Australian dollar skidded 0.1 percent to $0.6779 <AUD=D3> as investors bet on more Reserve Bank of Australia easing. Westpac Bank Chief Economist Bill Evans said he expected two central bank interest rate cuts and quantitative easing to be introduced next year.

Expectations for more policy easing have weighed on the trade-exposed Aussie despite growing optimism over a U.S.-China trade agreement .

Sterling recovered slightly to $1.2888 <GBP=D3> a day after polls showed a narrowing in the Conservative Party's lead ahead of a Dec. 12 general election.

(Editing by William Maclean and Ken Ferris)

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