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PENSION
REFORM IS MORE POPULAR THAN PRITZKER, AND OTHER ILLINOIS POLLING DATA
THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU
Illinois Policy Institute/
Austin Berg
Three
points stick out in recently released numbers: First, J.B. Pritzker is
not a popular governor. Second, pollsters need to get real about the
“fair tax” fantasy. And third, pension reform draws a diverse base of
support, except at the Statehouse |
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 There’s an old saying that political science isn’t really
science at all. It’s an art.
The same goes for political polling. Modern pollsters use sophisticated modeling
and methods to get at the truth, but it can be hard to separate the signal from
the noise.
New polling data in Illinois paint an interesting picture of the state, if you
know where to look.
Three points stick out in recently released numbers:
First, J.B. Pritzker is not a popular governor. Second, pollsters need to get
real about the “fair tax” fantasy. And third, pension reform draws a diverse
base of support, except at the Statehouse.
The Pritzker styled by Springfield insiders and some media commentators is the
billionaire governor who gets things done. But polling shows he is fairly
divisive – underwater with independent voters – and has become more disliked
throughout his term.
Polling from FAKO Research & Insights conducted in February and released this
week shows 39% of Illinoisans rate Pritzker positively (14% very positive) while
36% rate him negatively (25% very negative). Another 19% of respondents were
neutral on the governor. The poll’s margin of error was just under 4%.
Here’s the regional breakdown for Pritzker:
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Chicago: 58% total positive (22% very positive)
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Suburban Cook County: 46% total positive (11% very positive
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Northern Illinois: 47% total negative (34% very negative)
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Southern Illinois: 54% total negative (43% very negative)
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Illinois’ independent voters are not pleased with the
governor, with only 29% reporting positive feelings compared with 39%
negative.
The FAKO numbers line up with polling from Morning Consult,
whose 50-state polling operation pegged Pritzker as one of the most unpopular
governors in the nation last fall. Pritzker’s approval rating started at 40% at
the beginning of 2019 and ticked up to 43% by the end of the year, according to
Morning Consult. But his disapproval shot up from 29% to 41% at the same time.
He started the year neutral among independents but ended it 9 percentage points
in the red.
Pritzker has signed many big bills into law: a big capital plan with big tax
hikes, a big gambling expansion, a big statewide minimum wage hike, marijuana
legalization and a graduated income tax constitutional amendment that would give
an additional $3.7 billion to state and local governments if voters approve it
in November, to name a few.
But it’s not clear he signed the right bills.
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top of second column] |
The governor has branded his constitutional
amendment the “fair tax”, and a new poll on that tax spurred
headlines touting major support, with nearly two-thirds of
Illinoisans approving of it, including 55% of downstate voters.
The problem with the poll was that it asked about the progressive
income tax as its proponents want to see it. Not as it is.
The Paul Simon Institute for Public Policy at
Southern Illinois University worded the question this way: “Would
you favor or oppose a proposal to change the Illinois Constitution
to allow a graduated income tax – that is, tax rates would be lower
for lower-income taxpayers and higher for upper-income taxpayers?”
The same question saw slightly higher support in 2019.
Lawmakers have not yet drafted the wording of the ballot question
that will ultimately face voters. But it’s not hard to see how the
wording of this poll question might tip the scales. Just as the
amendment “allow[s] a graduated income tax,” it also removes the
state’s 50-year-old flat tax protection. And while the amendment
might allow for lower rates on lower income taxpayers and higher
rates on higher income taxpayers, it also allows for the opposite,
as well as higher rates on everyone, should lawmakers decide.
When voters know even the most basic information about the
progressive tax, their opinion can change drastically. For example,
in one Democratic-held House district polled last year, the
progressive tax went from a win to a statistical tie simply by
noting it was Pritzker’s proposal. This swung independent voters
from support to opposition.
The more surprising finding from the SIU poll was on pension reform,
which is often dismissed in Springfield as not politically possible.
Researchers from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute asked 1,000
Illinoisans if they support “an amendment to the Illinois
Constitution that would preserve state retirement benefits already
earned by public employees, but would also allow a reduction in the
benefits earned in the future, whether by current or future
employees.”
The poll found 51% of Illinoisans said they would support the
amendment while 37% were opposed. Those numbers are far better than
the governor’s.
In Chicago, 55% of residents believe the amendment is a good idea.
Democrats (+7 percentage points), Independents (+7), Hispanic voters
(+12), government and nonprofit employees (+4), people aged 66 and
older (+22), and even union members (+4) all back the amendment.
When it comes to Pritzker, the progressive income tax and pensions,
state lawmakers judging the political winds might want to take a
second look around.
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