Oil moves higher on latest COVID-19 vaccine progress

[November 16, 2020]  By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session after U.S. company Moderna Inc <MRNA.O> said its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19.

Brent crude futures for January were up $1.48, or 3.5%, to $44.26 a barrel by 1215 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December was at $41.63, up $1.5 or 3.7%.

Prices were also buoyed by new data showing a rebound in the world's second and third largest economies, China and Japan, as figures showed Chinese refineries processed the most crude ever in October on a daily basis.

Moderna's announcement comes after Pfizer Inc <PFE.N> reported last week that its vaccine was more than 90% effective, raising hopes that the damage to the global economy from the pandemic could be reduced.

Both WTI and Brent gained more than 8% last week on hopes of a vaccine for COVID-19 and that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, would maintain lower output next year to support prices.

The group, known as OPEC+, has been cutting production by about 7.7 million barrels a day (bpd), with a compliance rate seen at 101% in October, and had planned to increase output by 2 million bpd from January.

OPEC+ is set to hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday that could recommend changes to production quotas when all the ministers meet on Nov. 30 and Dec. 1.

"There is no denying that the oil market is fully in the hands of OPEC+," SEB chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. "The organisation is the only reason why oil prices today are not $20 a barrel. As such, their upcoming meeting on Nov 30/Dec 1 is no less hugely important."

However, Libya's speedy recovery in production to more than 1.2 million bpd presents a challenge to OPEC+ cuts, while a slowdown in traffic across Europe and the United States has dampened fuel demand recovery hopes this winter.

(Additional reporting by Florence Tan and Roslan Khasawneh; Editing by Clarence Fernandez/Jason Neely/Jane Merriman)

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