OPEC+ weighs extending existing oil output cuts into 2021

[November 17, 2020]  DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday to look at adjusting plans for oil supply cuts next year as the coronavirus crisis continues to drive down demand.

The group known as OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others, are now due to wind down cuts that now stand at 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 5.7 million bpd from January.

But a worsening demand outlook and rising supplies from countries such as Libya has prompted OPEC+ to consider pushing back any increase in supply by three or six months.

The following graphics were included in a confidential report seen by Reuters that was drawn up by an OPEC+ panel, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC).
 

INVENTORIES

OPEC+ has looked at various scenarios on altering the deal on output cuts and the impact each scenario would have on reducing OECD inventories in line with the five-year average.

* Scenario A: The base case adopts modified data from theNovember 2020 OPEC monthly report, in particular on oil demand. * Scenario B: This alternative scenario assumes highercontractions for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply in 2020,and lower growth for demand and non-OPEC supply in 2021. * Scenario C: This assumes extending current crude outputcuts, using the base case framework, to the end of the firstquarter 2021. * Scenario D: This assumes extending current crude outputcuts, using the base case framework, to the end of the secondquarter 2021.
Graphic: OPEC+ Scenarios and Impact on Oil Inventories - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/xklpybqkbvg/OPEC%20Scenarios.PNG

CONFORMITY WITH CUTS

OPEC+ has yet to achieve full compliance among all members of the group with the oil cuts agreed in 2020. The group has asked countries that overproduced to make additional compensation cuts until the end of the year.

A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

OPEC+ figures show cumulative overproduction for all participating members is at 2.346 million bpd.

Graphic: Conformity Table - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/yzdvxkqdmpx/Conformity%20Table.PNG

Graphic: OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/qmyvmxborpr/OPEC%20Deviation.PNG

Graphic: Non-OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/dgkvlabwypb/Non%20OPEC%20Deviation.PNG

Graphic: OPEC+ Deviation from Oil Cuts - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/xlbpgzjglvq/OPEC%20Deviation%20from%20Cuts.PNG

Graphic: OPEC+ Conformity with Cuts - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/oakpexeqavr/conformity%20with%20cuts.PNG

DEMAND

OPEC expects global oil demand to rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought due to rising coronavirus cases.

Graphic: OPEC Demand Forecast - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/
gfx/ce/nmovadwkgpa/OPEC%20Demand%20forecast.PNG

(Reporting by Rania El Gamal and Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by Edmund Blair)

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