|
ILLINOIS
LOSES 1 SEAT IN CONGRESS AFTER 2020 CENSUS SHOWS POPULATION DROP OF
18,124
Illinois Policy Institute/
Bryce Hill
Illinois’ population count was 12,812,508
in 2020, a drop of 18,124 since 2010, according to new data released
April 26 by the U.S. Census Bureau. The data confirmed a long-held fear
for Illinoisans: population decline means Illinois will again lose a
seat in Congress. |
|
 During the past decade, Illinois suffered the second-largest
population decline in numeric terms, behind only West Virginia. As a percentage
of the population, Illinois’ population decline was third worst behind West
Virginia and Mississippi.
Historical data shows domestic outmigration – moving to and from other states –
has been the sole driver of Illinois’ population decline. Major reasons
Illinoisans are choosing to leave the state are for better housing and
employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public
policy in Illinois. Nearly half of Illinoisans have thought about moving away,
and they said taxes were their No. 1 reason. Population decline also contributes
to the lower economic prospects of the state.
Illinois’ population decline will affect more than just the economy. The state
will lose a representative in the U.S. House.
Seven states lost representatives, with California, Illinois, Michigan, New
York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each losing one seat. Six states
gained seats. Texas added two seats. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina,
and Oregon each added one seat.
These Census numbers do not give the details necessary for Illinois to use the
data for redistricting, but it is likely the population of Chicago’s collar
counties, and therefore their representation in legislative and congressional
districts, will increase relative to Cook County and downstate Illinois. Those
areas will lose representation, with few exceptions.
[ to
top of second column] |
Census numbers have been delayed because of
COVID-19. The loss of a congressional seat and the delay of census
numbers leaves aspiring candidates for the U.S. House of
Representatives in a difficult situation because district boundaries
may not be drawn with much time before candidate filing deadlines.
Congressional redistricting is especially strict, requiring
districts as close to equal in population as practical, meaning
there is virtually no way to draw districts without the official
Census numbers. Candidates cannot know what the districts will look
like until after the Illinois General Assembly passes a map and Gov.
J.B. Pritzker signs it into law.
Because the detailed numbers are not expected to be available until
late summer, candidates will be scrambling to gather the required
signatures to meet the Nov. 29 filing deadline under the current
election code. No one will know which representative’s district will
be eliminated, though with supermajorities in the Illinois House,
Illinois Senate and control of the governor’s office, it is a safe
bet Democrats will target a Republican-held seat unless Pritzker
follows through on his promise to veto any partisan, gerrymandered
map.
Click here to respond to the editor about this article
 |
