|
The
average forecast for IPCA consumer price inflation at the end of
this year rose to 3.8% from 3.6%, according to the latest weekly
'FOCUS' survey of over 100 economists.
That is above the central bank's goal of 3.75%, with a margin of
error of 1.5 percentage point on either side, and the highest
2021 forecast in the series.
The average inflation forecast over the next 12 months rose to
3.8% from 3.7%. The central bank's end-2022 goal is 3.50%.
A persistently weak exchange rate, strong global commodity
prices, and growing concerns over the government's fiscal
position are all pushing inflation expectations higher, and with
it interest rate expectations.
The average forecast of the benchmark Selic rate at the end of
this year rose to 4.00% from 3.75%, the survey showed,
indicating that the market now expects the Selic rate to double
this year from its current record low 2.00%.
Last month, the average end-2021 outlook was 3.25%. But the
central bank dropped its forward guidance at its Jan. 19-20
policy meeting, citing inflation expectations rising close to
target over the next couple of years.
Economists at Credit Suisse and Barclays expect the central bank
to raise rates as early as next month.
The FOCUS survey also showed that economists expect the real to
end this year at 5.05 per dollar, up from 5.01 per dollar last
week. It is currently trading around 5.40 per dollar.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Catherine Evans)
[© 2021 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2021 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.
|
|
