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 This was not always the
story though. The most recent years 2019 and 2020 presented extreme
conditions for planting, bringing about significant tillage and
planting delays. April 2020 started out with a great deal of soil
moisture with the 2019 winter precipitation at the 90th percentile
(30 year averages) and warmer than average temperatures. The first
10 days of April 2020 were unseasonably warmer than average, in the
80's (degrees.) Planting conditions were setting up good, then the
bottom fell out after the 10th.
The pattern changed with fronts close to Logan County, bringing lots
of rainstorms and thunderstorms that dropped 5-7 inches of rains
across the county, way above normal. Nobody could get into the
fields because it was so wet.
Farmers were wondering if this was a repeat of the ponding, pooling
and flooding conditions of Spring 2019.
And then to add insult to injury, temperatures plummeted to below
freezing around April 20, 2020. These cool temps did not allow for
the ground to warm up and shed excess moisture. Seeds planted had
very poor germination.
May 2020 continued with the same pattern as April: cool
temperatures. The weather finally turned the corner around May 22,
with warmer temperatures and the rainfall track finally shifting to
the north.
Overall, May came in two degrees below normal, and one inch above
normal rainfall because conditions changed so much after the 22nd of
the month.
The faucet finally shut off, and when it shut off, it stayed off.
Logan County went from flash-flood to "flash drought." The southern
and eastern parts of the county stayed extremely dry.
June brought one-half the
normal rainfall in Lincoln. During July Logan County only had about
four days when fields got spotty rains. The areas that were dry
stayed dry. August was dry for everybody, with long stretches with
only a few hundredths of an inch in rainfall that seemed more like
mist.
Even though the season started very late and had erratic rainfall,
many farmers reported that the deep soil moisture along with the
warm weather produced great yields in Logan County for 2020.
Everything weather wise seemed to come with perfect timing, with
late season dryness perfect for drying the crops in the fields.
Miller explained that the
local climate is like an engine. Whatever fuels the engine, the
engine puts out more of the same. So, if the engine receives a lot
of local moisture, the result will be more local rainfall. If the
engine receives local drought, the result will be more local
drought. Said more simply, rainfall begets rainfall and drought
begets drought.
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While 2021 started out very dry in January, with drought hydrology
levels. From Central Illinois to Northeastern Illinois and over into
Western Indiana is a band that is still a little below normal
rainfall patterns. A wide swath of very dry snow came around
February 10th, ending on the 18th with accumulations up to eleven
inches, but it was so dry that the moisture content was barely a
half-inch.
Logan County started making up rainfall deficits in March 2020,
especially from March 11- 15, but averages and ground water levels
are still low. The soil right now is defrosted and is soft and muddy
on top, and dry below.
Miller said the outlook for the next three to four weeks is good,
with some reliable rains in the region, with the heaviest rainfall
in Western Illinois and the Southern Ohio river valley. The primary
storm tracks are to the west and south, meaning Logan County will
get some precip but miss the biggest storms that plagued us in 2019
and 2020 and created such a mess.
A warmer pattern is developing for the central plains, bringing
warmer than normal temperatures to most of the country and will help
dry things out. Predictions for this planting season say that seeds
will go in the ground on time as mild weather continues through
summer, with adequate precip in later spring and summer months,
making for good crops and excellent yields.
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