2018 Farm Outlook

Page 12 2018 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine LINCOLN DAILY NEWS Oct. 25, 2018 With the advances in seed corn, higher yields are expected, which could equate to break even or increased bushels on the whole at harvest time across the country in spite of the decrease in acres planted. If weather impacts harvest or yields and causes a decrease in anticipated yields, then that could impact the bushels of corn stored in 2018. According to the NCGA, 2017 stores totaled 8.89 billion bushels, only up three percent from March of 2017. If corn in storage does not increase and if trade agreements are reached in 2019, that could equate to a higher price per bushel at the elevator. Farm doc is also projecting that corn prices in 2019 will be slightly higher on the average moving from $3.70 per bushel in 2018 to $3.80 in 2019. Cash prices at the elevator do not support that claim as of October 12th,2018, when the average corn price was $3.27. However, this is harvest time, and with the trade agreements in limbo, prices are lower than they should be and lower than they could be toward the first of the year. So, where is the silver lining in all these figures? It’s really hard to say. Once again there are as many “what if scenarios” in this basket as there are kernels on an ear of corn. If the trade agreements are worked out and China is open to corn imports from the U.S. we could see an increase in volume sold, a decrease in bushels in stock and an increase in price. China is working to require higher rates of ethanol in all their gasoline products so that could mean more raw product purchased in the coming years. Silver linings are often as hard to find as pots of gold at the end of rainbows. But Logan County’s silver lining is its continued outstanding yields, year after year. The bushels brought in from the field are higher in spite of fewer acres planted, input costs continue to go down, and looking at new markets for the consumption of corn the price at the elevator may indeed rise rather than fall. A blessing to Logan County farmers continues to be in the development of alternative energy projects, wind and solar, replacing production income while taking away tillable acres. With reduced acreage available, and increased yields per acre, coupled with revenues gained from alternative energy payments to the farmer for land use, Logan County farmers could see stable farm income from crops with the bonus of income from alternative land use. Changing farm practices with the reduced acreage needed to produce the same total bushels, there is room for greater diversification on the farm. Whether it be an increase in soybean production, returning to crop rotation or exploring alternative crops, farmers in this county may find that they can accomplish more on fewer acres, thus increasing their odds for profitable years in the future. Sources: USDA: FARMERS PLANTING FEWER CORN ACRES IN 2018 MARCH 2018 http://www.ncga.com/news-and-resources/ news-stories/article/2018/03/usda-farmers- planting-fewer-corn-acres-in-2018 Oregon’s Top 10 Agricultural Products https://www.farmflavor.com/oregon/oregon- ag-products/oregons-top-10-agricultural- products/ CONTINUED