Gray's team at Colorado State University had called for above-average storm seasons the past two Decembers - and both turned out to be wrong. But Gray said he believes this year's forecast will be better.

"We think we're finally onto a scheme that will be more accurate," he said Friday.

The new forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It says there is a slightly higher-than-average chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States.

Gray's predictions, now in their 25th year, are watched closely by emergency responders and others in hurricane-prone areas. But officials routinely express concerns that residents might become apathetic if predictions prove overblown.

Government forecasters also predicted an above-average season for 2007.

An average of 5.9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic each year.

Gray said his team based the 2008 extended-range forecast, issued six months before the June-November season, on three predictors. In the past, they have used as many as six.