"This year, it's going to be such a mess," said Scott Dixon, the fastest driver in this week's rain-abbreviated practice on the 2.5-mile Indy oval with a lap of 226.968 mph Friday, considerably faster than the four-lap average of 225.817 that won the pole for Helio Castroneves last May.
In fact, the five quickest drivers on "Fast Friday," the final full day of practice before qualifying, were faster than last year's pole. But it isn't as simple as just being fast now.
The unique, four-day Indy qualifying format limits the number of qualifiers to 11 on each of the first three days, then uses the fourth and final day to bump the slowest drivers already in the 33-car lineup.
Making it even more difficult, each car is allowed up to three chances per day, with the teams allowed to withdraw an already-qualified car to try to go faster.
With the recent unification of the two American open-wheel series, there are more car-driver combinations here for the first weekend of time trials than in any year in the past decade. Thirty-three cars made it onto the track during Friday's busy session, turning a total of 1,033 laps.
Dixon said he expects a lot of those drivers, particularly the ones transitioning from the now-defunct Champ Car World Series, to be chasing position No. 11 just as hard as the favorites drive for the No. 1 spot on Saturday.
"Twenty or twenty-two or maybe more cars are fighting for that spot," Dixon said. "They're going to clog up the (technical inspection) lines and things like that. It could be a tough day for everybody."
The rookies got two full days of practice Sunday and Monday, while the veterans had one dry day on Tuesday before Friday's session, cut about three hours short by yet more rain. Dixon moved to the top of the speed chart, just ahead of Marco Andretti's 226.710, Tony Kanaan's 226.688, Ryan Briscoe's 226.143 and rookie Hideki Mutoh's 225.990.
But the New Zealander, who drives for Target Chip Ganassi Racing, doesn't consider himself the favorite.
"To be fast on `Fast Friday,' I've been in this spot before and it hasn't worked out well for me in the past," Dixon said. "It was a bit tight out there (in traffic), hard to get clear laps, so you don't really know where you are. Everybody's speed fell off an awful lot when they were in the clear.