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"If the threshold were 50 percent, it would likely pass, but 60 percent is a very difficult scenario," said David Johnson, former executive director of Florida's Republican Party. The Arizona campaign is noteworthy because in 2006 it became the only state to defeat a proposed ban on same-sex marriage. Similar measures have passed in 27 other states. The Arizona measure failed two years ago in part because opponents contended it would jeopardize domestic partnerships and other arrangements benefiting unmarried couples. This year's version has been streamlined to simply define marriage as between a man and woman; its prospects are considered strong. Yet gay-rights activists insist that same-sex marriage and other "culture war" issues will be less effective for Republican candidates than in November 2004, when marriage amendments won approval in 11 states. "No matter where you fall on the issue of marriage, people are seeing these divisive tactics for what they are," Solmonese said Solmonese said there is broad support for Obama among gays despite his hesitancy on same-sex marriage. In contrast to McCain, Obama supports other gay-rights priorities
-- extending job discrimination and hate-crimes laws to cover sexual orientation, and scrapping the "don't ask, don't tell" policy that bars gays from serving openly in the military. John Marble of Stonewall Democrats, which represents the party's gays and lesbians, said activists were encouraged that Obama was wrestling with how to extend federal recognition to same-sex couples. "We're not in total agreement with him, but at least he's engaging in that conversation," Marble said. Marble and Solmonese said McCain was sending two sets of signals regarding same-sex couples
-- telling conservatives he firmly opposed gay marriage while suggesting to moderates that same-sex relationships were entitled to some sort of legal recognition. They said his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate reinforced his message to the religious right, which views her as a staunch opponent of same-sex marriage even though she hasn't publicly raised the issue since her nomination. "McCain has been quite skilled at wrapping up discriminatory views in a nice package," Solmonese said. "I couldn't tell you where his heart genuinely is."
[Associated
Press;
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