Iraq's rebuff of US has element of posturing

[July 07, 2009]  BAGHDAD (AP) -- Iraq's public rebuff of a U.S. offer of help with national reconciliation efforts may in part be political posturing. It also points to the dilemma facing the prime minister -- he needs U.S. help and must garner support from Iraqis fed up with the American presence.

Even though the United States has long sought to nudge Iraq's deeply divided factions together, stark differences remain more than six years after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

The Americans, with their combat troops now out of the cities, find themselves struggling to redefine their relationship with an Iraqi government that is increasingly asserting its sovereignty to win over voters ahead of a January election.

U.S. officials have faulted Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, for not taking advantage of the dramatic reduction in violence over the last two years to bring Iraq's rival ethnic and religious groups together.

They fear the lack of an enduring, power-sharing formula raises the specter of a return to the brutal sectarian bloodshed of 2006 and 2007.

Al-Maliki and aides insist their reconciliation efforts are on track and that outside interference, even from their longtime backer the United States, can only be seen as harmful.

"We will not allow anybody to interfere in our affairs or to assume supervision of the political process or national reconciliation," al-Maliki told tribal leaders in the Sunni Anbar province, without mentioning the United States by name. "Would they accept it if we interfered in their affairs?" he said Monday.

The rebuff follows last week's visit to Baghdad by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who stressed America's commitment to Iraq's progress but irked the government by warning that American involvement cannot continue if sectarian violence resumes.

Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh also said Iraq did not want the U.S. to intervene in its internal affairs because that would make things worse.

If al-Maliki's dilemma is not resolved soon, the consequences could be serious.

An Arab-Kurdish conflict is deepening, a recent uptick in violence that saw hundreds killed in June and April is threatening to re-ignite sectarian violence, and political tensions are expected to rise ahead of the parliamentary elections.

The increased tension comes as the United States begins to shrink its military footprint in Iraq. It now has some 130,000 troops in Iraq, and combat forces pulled back last week from cities to bases outside urban centers.

The U.S. has several ways to maintain leverage over Iraqi politics besides military power. Iraq, for example, is dependent on Washington to help lift U.N. sanctions dating to the 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Saddam's army. Lifting of sanctions could save the Iraqis billions of dollars in war compensations and fully restore sovereignty.

Iraq also views U.S. assistance as crucial to reconstruction and the training and supplying of its armed forces. It will for years count on Washington for protection against any outside threat.

"We should think about U.S. influence in Iraq in a broader fashion because we are still relevant for many political actors there," said Michael W. Hanna, an Iraq expert from the Century Foundation in New York.

"And even among those most opposed to U.S. interference, there will be some room to discuss events and questions of political accommodation quietly and behind closed doors."

The need to take Washington up on its offer of help resonates with Iraqi politicians too.

"We should not refuse any outside offer for help," said Mahmoud Othman, a senior Kurdish politician. "We have had six years of failure to achieve national reconciliation."

There may be more to al-Maliki's defiant words in Anbar than indignation at the U.S. -- the prime minister has been aggressively forging an image as a nationalist leader. He declared the U.S. withdrawal from Iraqi cities a victory and dubbed the occasion National Sovereignty Day.

He did not mention the U.S. role in reducing violence in a televised address, instead lavishly praising Iraqi security forces, whose capabilities remain in doubt.

In reality, al-Maliki needs Washington's help with some threats to Iraq's stability.

One such threat is the increasingly bitter quarrel between Arabs and Kurds over disputed territories in northern Iraq, a struggle that threatens to erupt into violence. The Kurds have been Washington's most reliable allies in Iraq and are likely to heed its counsel on their dispute with the central government.

In their draft constitution, the Kurds provocatively placed the boundaries of their region in three Iraqi provinces. "We want the Americans to suspend the Kurdish constitution," said a close al-Maliki aide, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Al-Maliki has long sought a deal with Sunni insurgents to end violence, but his efforts have been stymied in large part by Iranian-backed Shiite parties opposed to any contact with Saddam loyalists.

The loyalists, members of the outlawed Baath party, are suspected of joining forces with al-Qaida to launch attacks.

"There will never be reconciliation in Iraq without reaching an understanding with the Baathists," said Kazim al-Muqdadi, a political analyst at Baghdad University. "The party continues to have support among Sunnis, but al-Maliki does not have the support he needs to talk to them."

[Associated Press; By HAMZA HENDAWI]

Hendawi is the AP's Middle East Correspondent. He has covered Iraq since 2003.

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