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"In addition, financial, currency and energy markets will
continue to have an influence on crop prices, as those markets
influence overall demand prospects," said Darrel Good. Good's
comments came as he reviewed USDA reports on planting intentions
and March 1 stocks he termed as "supportive for corn, soybean
and wheat prices."
The USDA's Prospective Plantings report indicates that U.S.
producers intend to plant less acreage in 2009 than in 2008.
Planting intentions for all crops included in the March survey
are 7.8 million acres less than acreage seeded to those crops in
2008. Including acreage of hay intended for harvest, the decline
is about 7.6 million.
Declines total 4.5 million for wheat, 1.3 million for
sorghum, nearly 1 million for corn, 658,000 for cotton, 446,000
for sunflowers, 410,000 for peanuts and 154,000 for canola.
"For wheat, 75 percent of the acreage reduction is for winter
wheat, even though winter wheat seedings are 791,000 larger than
reported in January," he said.
"Intended acreage of soybeans is 306,000 more than planted in
2008, and intended acreage for rice is 188,000 more than planted
in 2008. Intended acreage of all oilseed crops included in this
report is 672,000 less than planted in 2008. Intended acreage of
feed grains -- corn, sorghum, barley and oats -- is 2.4 million
less than planted in 2008."
For corn, the largest changes in acreage are planned in
Missouri (up 250,000) and North Dakota (down 250,000).
"Illinois producers intend to increase corn acreage by
100,000, while producers in Iowa intend to reduce acreage by the
same amount," said Good. "Intended acreage in Indiana is equal
to last year's plantings."
Corn planting intentions of 84.986 million acres point to
acreage harvested for grain of 77.786 million. The long-term
trend yield of 152.8 bushels per acre, then, points to a 2009
harvest of 11.862 billion bushels, 239 million smaller than the
2008 harvest.
"A crop of that size would likely result in a sharp decline
in stocks by the end of the 2009-10 marketing year, as both
exports and ethanol use of corn are expected to increase during
the year ahead," said Good.
For soybeans, intended acreage is below actual plantings in
2008 by 150,000 acres in Missouri and South Dakota, 100,000
acres in Illinois and 50,000 acres in Indiana, Louisiana and
Minnesota. The largest increase -- 200,000 acres -- is planned
in Kansas, with increases of 100,000 planned in Iowa,
Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio.
"Soybean planting intentions of 76.024 million acres points
to harvested acreage of about 75 million," he said. "The
long-term trend yield of 41.6 bushels per acre, then, points to
a 2009 harvest of 3.12 billion bushels, 160 million larger than
the 2008 harvest.
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"A crop of that size would likely lead to a small increase in stocks
by the end of the 2009-10 marketing year."
Intended acreage of spring wheat, including durum, is estimated
at 15.749 million, 1.117 million less than seeded in 2008. Winter
wheat seedings are estimated at 42.889 million, 3.392 million less
than seeded the previous year.
Stocks of corn on March 1 were estimated at 6.958 billion
bushels, implying that corn used for all purposes during the second
quarter of the 2008-09 marketing year totaled about 3.13 billion
bushels. March 1 stocks are 100 million bushels larger than those of
a year earlier, and use during the second quarter was 293 million
less than the record use of a year earlier.
Exports during the quarter were off 262 million, and domestic use
declined by only 31 million. Feed use during the quarter was down,
while use for ethanol production was larger.
Stocks of soybeans on March 1 were estimated at 1.302 billion
bushels, implying that use during the second quarter of the 2008-09
marketing year totaled 976 million bushels. March 1 stocks are about
132 million smaller than on the same date last year, and use during
the second quarter was 46 million larger than use of a year earlier.
Good noted that the domestic crush was down nearly 47 million
bushels; exports up about 50 million; and seed, feed and residual
use was 42 million larger.
Stocks of wheat on March 1 were estimated at 1.037 billion
bushels, 327 million larger than stocks of a year earlier. The
estimate, however, is 25 million bushels less than the average
pre-report guess.
"Acreage for all crops in 2009 is less than expected, and
intended acreage of both soybeans and wheat is less than expected,"
he said. "Intended corn acreage is a bit higher than the average
pre-report guess, but the large decline in intended acreage of
barley and sorghum probably exceeds expectations.
"March 1 stocks of all three crops were slightly smaller than the
average pre-report guess."
[Text from file received
from the University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences] |
