Economic crisis shapes Mongolia president election

[May 22, 2009]  ULAN BATOR, Mongolia (AP) -- A politically divided Mongolia votes for a new president this weekend after being battered by the economic downturn and worries that a too-close result will renew the rioting that marred an election last year.

Polls show the two candidates in a statistical tie, with incumbent President Enkhbayar Nambaryn given a slight edge if farmers and nomadic herdsmen turn out heavily for Sunday's election.

Both Enkhbayar, who is running for a second term, and rival Democratic Party candidate Elbegdorj Tsahia are promising ordinary Mongolians they will get a share of revenues from the country's abundant mineral wealth.

Beyond that, their messages differ and their abilities to deliver on campaign pledges are hampered by the drag of the global financial crisis on the poor, landlocked country of 2.6 million people.

Growth that averaged nearly nine percent annually from 2004-08 -- mainly carried by high prices for copper and new gold production -- is projected to slump to just above 2 percent this year as mineral prices tumble. As a result, tax revenues have shrunk, social programs have been cut back and the often U.S.-leaning government has turned to neighbors China and Russia for loans and other economic support.

Elbegdorj, a two-time former prime minister, is campaigning on a U.S. President Barack Obama-like theme of change and anti-corruption that pleases urban voters, especially in the capital of Ulan Bator, where more than half the electorate live. Meanwhile, Enkhbayar and his ruling Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party are wooing their rural base with promises of national unity, law enforcement -- and continued government assistance.

"People like the candidates that make more pledges and promises. This promise to distribute mining profits plays an especially significant role in the election's outcome. Both candidates are promising to do this and pledging to make Mongolians masters of Mongolia and making patriotic and populist appeals," said Amgalanbaatar Dagdandorj, a political analyst with the research company Mongolian Marketing Consulting Group.

Last year, sharp political differences between the two parties played out in contentious parliamentary elections. When Elbegborj's Democrats lost, he alleged voting fraud by election committees, which are dominated by the ruling party. What followed was a vodka-fueled riot that left five dead and 300 injured and that saw protesters set fire to the ruling party's headquarters in central Ulan Bator.

To prevent a repeat, authorities in the capital have banned alcohol sales and canceled sports competitions, cultural shows and other events that draw crowds on election day. Election officials have been instructed to put ink marks on the fingers and voter identification cards of voters to try to prevent them from voting more than once.

The presidential election is Mongolia's fifth since a popular and largely peaceful uprising overturned the pro-Soviet Union government in 1990. The country has been hailed as a success story for democracy in a region dominated by authoritarian government. Successive Mongolian governments have forged close relations with the U.S. -- Mongolian soldiers fought in the Iraq war -- while maintaining inevitable ties with Russia and China.

Poverty, however, persists among one-third of the population. Ulan Bator, a Soviet-built city of drab apartment blocks, is swarmed by sprawling shanty towns with little clean water and where people live on government handouts.

Some Mongolian voters are skeptical about the prospects for real change from two well-established politicians. "Their challenge is to convince the people that they can bring some tangible results and improvements to the country, which neither were able to deliver when in power," said university student Ono Ganzorig.

The candidates' promises to tap royalties from mining projects seem far off. The government has been stymied trying to re-negotiate terms on mining concessions with big foreign companies. A re-negotiated deal with Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines and Australia's Rio Tinto has been held up by a parliamentary committee, which has demanded the government try to get more money.

One of President Enkhbayar's campaign slogans promotes a "gift from the motherland to every citizen." His MPRP party proposes setting up a fund similar to Alaska's where every citizen receives shares from mining profits. The message resonates. "Our family has always voted for the MPRP. They are more responsible and consistent," said Dashnamjil Bekhbat, a herder of sheep, goats and cows on pasturelands 60 miles (100 kilometers) outside Ulan Bator.

Urban voters -- who also want their share of mining profits -- tend to believe Elbegdorj is more likely to deliver. "Elbegdorj is all about change. He represents new, fresh and progressive ideas, which we badly need in Mongolia," said textile importer Shagai Batmunkh in Ulan Bator.

[Associated Press; By GANBAT NAMJILSANGARAV]

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