Beijing is chiefly wary of the prospect of hundreds of thousands - possibly millions
- of desperate North Koreans streaming across its border in search of food and refuge should Kim Jong Il's regime fall.
Already, estimates of North Koreans in China illegally run as high as a quarter million. Most take refuge among the ethnically Korean populations of the northern provinces of Jilin and Liaoning, parts of which were historically ruled by past Korean dynasties.
Beijing's concerns are also economic in nature. South Korean companies are major investors in China, but would likely shift their focus to North Korea if the regime should collapse or significantly loosen investment restrictions as a result of outside pressure.
At the same time, Chinese companies are busily exploiting economic opportunities in North Korea, mainly mining and exports of manufactured goods, with two-way commerce shooting up 41.2 percent to $2.78 billion last year. With the balance heavily in China's favor, Beijing has little incentive to support moves that would pry the North open to competitors.
Crucial too is Beijing's desire to avert the emergence of a unified Korea under a pro-American government that could vie with it for regional influence. Many in the government also worry about the possibility of a greater Korea movement as Koreans within its borders seek to join with their ethnic kin across the border in a united Korea.
With those concerns paramount, Beijing is unlikely to sign on to sweeping new sanctions that narrow North Korea's already slender contacts with the outside world, as some in the United Nations Security Council are calling for.
However, that too poses a dilemma. As one of the veto-wielding members of the council, Beijing has little chance of ducking demands to take at least some action to curtail North Korea's nuclear and missile activities. Open opposition to a tough Security Council resolution could cast Beijing as a spoiler, dissolving the credibility and goodwill it has built up in recent years as sponsor of talks among the two Koreas, the U.S., Japan, and Russia on dismantling the North's nuclear programs.
China will likely therefore negotiate for weaker measures such as those taken after North Korea's first nuclear test three years ago, while pushing for a resumption of the six-nation talks. Despite the North's withdrawal and repudiation of past agreements reached at the forum, China's hosting the talks allows it to manage to a degree the perpetual North Korean nuclear crisis while boosting Beijing's own diplomatic clout.
What private unilateral measures it takes, if any, may never be known, given the extreme secrecy that envelopes China-North Korea relations.
However, Hong Hyun-ik, a senior analyst at the South Korean security think tank Sejong Institute, said he expects China may also impose its own sanctions step by step, trying to balance its public opposition to a nuclear-armed North Korea and the prospect of losing leverage over the North.
