Once Republican Scott Brown showed that Democrats in Massachusetts couldn't hold the late Edward M. Kennedy's Senate seat, however, what seemed politically impossible in the 2010 elections has at least some plausibility.
After courting Steve Levy, a county executive from populous Long Island, to switch his registration from Democrat to Republican and run for governor, the GOP's new message to Cuomo is: Game on.
"This is just one of those really great stories, where you find a candidate who fits what's needed by the state and has a record to prove it," said New York GOP chairman Ed Cox.
Thirty-seven states are electing governors this year. To be sure, Cuomo is still favored to win in heavily Democratic New York. But Levy is among a handful of promising dark horse gubernatorial hopefuls across the country
- challengers or open-seat candidates - who are well-regarded by party leaders and who, like Brown, could pull off an upset.
The group includes Republicans like Chris Dudley, a former NBA star who has vastly out-raised other GOP candidates vying for the open seat in Democratic-leaning Oregon, and Susana Martinez, a Hispanic district attorney hoping to succeed outgoing Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson in New Mexico.
Democratic Party leaders are optimistic about Scott Heidepriem, a state legislator running for the open governor's seat in Republican-leaning South Dakota, and Peter Corroon, the mayor of Salt Lake County challenging incumbent Utah GOP Gov. Gary Herbert.
The most promising dark horse candidates share similarities regardless of party.
They are proven fundraisers who can keep pace with or often out-raise their higher-profile opponents. They are running as pragmatic problem-solvers who can appeal to voters across the political spectrum. And they stress fiscal conservatism on the campaign trail while largely avoiding divisive social issues.
"The most important thing for a dark horse candidate is that they have a record of fiscal conservatism and a vision for how to move the state forward," Republican strategist John Weaver said. "That's how dark horses can come out of right field and lead the field, because they are talking about what people care about this year."
Weaver is advising Levy as well as two other potential dark horse gubernatorial candidates
- Republican Rick Snyder in Michigan and Tim Cahill, the state treasurer and Democrat-turned-independent running in Massachusetts.
While Republican Charlie Baker is mounting a strong challenge in Massachusetts to Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick, Cahill's blue-collar background and message of fiscal austerity have made it a credible three-person race.
In Utah, Corroon was re-elected with 66 percent of the vote in 2008 in a county home to about 40 percent of the state's population. Utah is a conservative state, but Corroon said in an interview that voters still prefer moderate governors. Corroon insisted that he, rather than Herbert, was a true heir to former GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman, who left the post last year when President Barack Obama named him ambassador to China.
"Our message is what people care about," Corroon said. "It's the basics
- jobs, a strong education system, good quality of life and a proven track record as a fiscal conservative."