NKorea plays sanctions card in nuclear standoff

[February 04, 2010]  SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- Last month, North Korea got a coveted visit to Pyongyang by a top U.S. official and hinted it was ready to resume negotiations on giving up its nuclear program.

Now, the country appears to be backpedaling, raising the bar by demanding an end to international sanctions before any talks.

The move sets up a probable new roadblock, because it's highly unlikely the United Nations, the United States and others would roll back sanctions. It also is the latest sign that the punitive measures appear to be taking a toll on the totalitarian regime of Kim Jong Il.

The U.N. Security Council slapped on tough new sanctions last June, strengthening an arms embargo and authorizing ship searches on the high seas, after North Korea carried out a long-range missile launch and its second underground nuclear test.

"What is most serious is that the export of weapons has been restricted," said Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor of North Korean studies at Korea University near Seoul.

Military exports are an important source of hard currency for the North, which has long been suspected of selling weapons and missiles to some Middle East countries. The sanctions have likely scared off potential customers, Yoo said.

There have been several high-profile weapons seizures or incidents in the past six months. The most recent incident was in December, when a cargo plane that left North Korea with 35 tons of weapons was seized by Thai authorities during a refueling stop in Bangkok. Paperwork seen by arms trafficking researchers indicates the weapons may have been headed to Iran.

North Korea lobbied to have the sanctions eased when Stephen Bosworth, the special U.S. envoy to North Korea, visited Pyongyang in December.

He responded that wouldn't happen until North Korea returned to the nuclear negotiations and made significant progress in getting rid of its atomic weapons. He also said, however, that the North had agreed on the need to resume the talks, which was seen as a positive sign.

In Tokyo, South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan and his Japanese counterpart reaffirmed Washington's stance, saying Saturday that the lifting of sanctions could be discussed in the U.N. Security Council after the North makes progress toward denuclearization, according to Yonhap news agency.

North Korea broke off negotiations more than a year ago. Dubbed the six-party talks, they are a joint effort of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan and South Korea to end the North's nuclear weapons program.

In a rare diplomatic offensive this week, North Korea's top envoys in Beijing, Moscow and at the U.N. held rare interviews with foreign media to repeat demands outlined in a statement Monday from North Korea's Foreign Ministry.

Sin Son Ho, North Korea's ambassador to the U.N., told reporters in New York that the country could return to the talks "sooner ... if the sanctions are removed."

Regarding South Korea, its rival for control of the Korean peninsula and a U.S. ally, the North sent conflicting signals this week. On the one hand it threatened to break off dialogue and even attack the South while on the other it proposed talks to restart suspended programs in which South Korean tourists can visit the North.

Noh Jong-sun, a professor at Seoul's Yonsei University, favors easing the sanctions to entice the North back to the negotiating table.

"The North is in serious pain due to sanctions but the stick will not resolve the issue," Noh said.

He warned that putting too much pressure on North Korea could push it to strengthen ties with China.

China is North Korea's biggest trading partner, a key aid donor and a longtime ally dating back to the 1950-53 Korean War. Its influence is seen as crucial to getting the North to return to talks, though analysts differ over how hard Beijing is willing to push.

China is believed to have temporarily suspended major investment projects in North Korea to cajole its impoverished neighbor back to the negotiating table, said Lim Eul-chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea's Kyungnam University.

Not all analysts agree that the sanctions are having a big impact.

"Of course, sanctions hurt, but probably not as much as many people believe," Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, said in an e-mail interview. "The top elite still have access to their bottles of Hennessy cognac and BMWs. And Chinese willingness to shower Pyongyang with gifts also undermines the sanctions' efficiency."

Lankov, a Russian who studied in North Korea, said that lifting the sanctions is unlikely. Rather, he said, the regime probably hopes to "negotiate some relaxations which make their situation easier."

The North also said this week that its return to negotiations depends on building better ties with the United States, and reiterated a long-standing demand for the conclusion of a peace treaty to end the Korean War.

North Korea has long sought a peace treaty and diplomatic relations with the U.S. as a quasi-guarantee that America, which has 28,500 troops in South Korea, would not invade and topple the Kim Jong Il government. The U.S. has repeatedly said it has no intention to attack the North.

[Associated Press; By KWANG-TAE KIM]

Associated Press writer Hyung-jin Kim contributed to this report.

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