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"I look at the complexity of this puzzle and feel very strongly that this will not lead to treatments that will get people to be centenarians," he said. But it may help in developing a strategy and screenings that will help find what treatments will be needed down the road.
While this study, begun in 1995, focused on Caucasians, the researchers said they plan to extend it to other groups, including studying Japan, which has large numbers of elderly.
"Inheritability of longevity has been looked at, so genes do play a role," said Dr. Kenneth S. Kendler of the Department of Human and Molecular Genetics at Virginia Commonwealth University.
But so do other factors "such as driving motorcycles fast and smoking," said Kendler, who was not part of the research team.
The 77 percent accuracy rate reported in this study is better than other groups have been able to do, Kendler added.
The U.S. study found that about 85 percent of people 100 and older are women and 15 percent men.
"Men tend to be more susceptible to mortality in age-related diseases," Perls said. "Once they get a disease they more readily die. Women, on the other hand, seem to be better able to handle these diseases, so they tend to have higher levels of disability than men, but they live longer than men."
The study was funded by grants from the National Institute of Aging and the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.
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Online: http://www.sciencemag.org/
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