Analysis: For Obama, Iraq elections are good news

[March 08, 2010]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumed by domestic battles over health care and the ravaged economy, President Barack Obama had nearly fallen silent on foreign policy -- until Sunday, when several things began breaking his way. First among them: the Iraq election.

Insurgent attacks on polling stations killed at least 36 people even with extraordinary security measures in place, including closure of the country's borders and the Baghdad international airport. But American officials and Iraqis had feared far worse.

The president has seen a paucity of good news from overseas, and when he appeared in the White House Rose Garden to congratulate Iraqis on the big turnout in the face of violence, Obama seemed relieved.

The day had passed without an explosion of bloodshed that has marked a war in which tens of thousands of Iraqis died and more than 4,300 Americans have lost their lives.

"Today's voting makes it clear that the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq," the president said.

Success in the elections moves the United States a step closer to its pledge of pulling combat troops out of Iraq by Aug. 31 and to withdraw the remaining 50,000-strong security force by the end of the year.

The successful vote was a notch in Obama's political belt as well, given that he campaigned for the White House vowing to end the conflict and refocus on the Afghan war.

Also Sunday and after months of frustration, Palestinians said they were ready for indirect negotiations with Israel. Obama had put a resumption of peace talks at the top of his foreign policy agenda but was repeatedly foiled by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to pledge an end to settlement building in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. The Palestinians want that land for a future state.

The United States will act as mediator for the indirect talks, with Vice President Joe Biden attending meetings in the region this week. Former Sen. George Mitchell, Obama's special Mideast envoy, also is returning to facilitate the process.

There was good news as well in Afghanistan, where provincial officials said as many as 100 members of the powerful Hezb-e-Islami militia, loyal to regional warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, were joining forces with U.S.-backed Afghan security forces in the fight against Taliban fighters.

And in Pakistan, the authorities, in a seeming break from their policy of allowing refuge to key Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida members, have captured several key leaders of those organizations over the past several weeks.

But many of the most daunting foreign policy challenges that faced Obama a year ago remain and fester.

And that will leave the foreign policy establishment working feverishly. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton likely will continue her relentless travel. Envoys like Mitchell will need to continue shuttling. They will whittle away at major tasks as political realities at home force Obama into a single-minded use of the bully pulpit to save his domestic agenda.

The most daunting foreign policy issue: Iran. Tehran is believed to have hastened attempts to build a nuclear bomb to put atop a missile.

While Iran asserts it is only trying to build reactors for electricity generation, a new report from the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency to the contrary has deepened concerns in the United States and Europe.

The U.S. and its allies are preparing for a new push in the United Nations for a fourth round of sanctions on Iran. The Russians -- in a change of behavior -- appear ready to join the effort. But China still can block the sanctions effort in the Security Council.

Beijing -- like the U.S., Britain, France and Russia -- holds a veto. So far, it appears the best Obama can hope for is a Chinese abstention. Beijing says sanctions are not in order and insists more diplomacy is necessary.

China is increasingly emboldened on the world stage, given its growing global economic muscle. It also is deeply at odds with the United States over recent arms sales to Taiwan -- which the Chinese claim is part of their territory. Beijing was further angered by Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader China accuses of separatist ambitions for the Himalayan region controlled by Beijing.

Russia, while more pliable than in the past on Iran sanctions, is believed balking -- if only temporarily -- in negotiations on an arms control treaty to replace the START pact that expired in December. It appears that reported plans for a U.S. missile shield have snarled the talks.

There had been significant progress on a replacement treaty, particularly after Obama announced he would forgo building the missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland. But word that it might be shifted to Romania and Bulgaria appears to have caught the Russians off guard.

And so, global and American political realities have stunted Obama's ambitious international agenda of a year ago. He has made some progress in repairing America's image through a series of speeches delivered to overseas audiences.

But his focus on foreign policy, nine foreign journeys in 2009, has been sharply curtailed so far -- so much so that he will first venture abroad this year when he travels to Asia later this month.

[Associated Press; By STEVEN R. HURST]

Steven R. Hurst reports from the White House for The Associated Press and has covered international relations for 30 years.

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