Analysis: Turkey hesitates on missile defense

[October 21, 2010]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- Turkey finds itself once again in an awkward position between fellow NATO members and Iran as it considers a proposal to place a key component of a U.S. missile defense system on its soil.

Depending on how it is resolved, the issue could heighten or quell concerns in Washington that Turkey is drifting away from the West.

The U.S. would like Turkey to host a radar installation for its European missile shield and to back a proposal to make missile defense a core mission for NATO. After initial enthusiasm about the radar, Turkey has hesitated. Its main concern is that it does not want the missile defense system to explicitly target Iran. Turkey also doesn't want NATO to go on record at its summit in Lisbon, Portugal, Nov. 19-21, identifying Iran as a ballistic missile threat.

But U.S. and NATO officials have clearly identified Iran as the most immediate threat, even pegging the timing of building a missile defense to projected advances in Iran's missile capabilities. And Turkey offers an advantage over other U.S. allies for the placement of the system's radar: its proximity to Iran.

Turkey has an interest in not alienating Tehran. It is increasingly dependent on Iranian energy resources and eager to expand trade. But the relatively close relationship with Iran has been an irritant to Washington. A last-minute nuclear-fuel swap deal with Tehran brokered by Turkey and Brazil ahead of a United Nations Security Council vote on sanctions in June was swiftly rejected, and U.S. officials reacted with anger when Turkey voted against the sanctions.

The disagreement has bolstered doubt about Turkey's commitment to Western institutions at a time when its bid for membership in the European Union has stalled. With a booming economy and growing regional clout, Turkey has been cultivating its ties to neighboring countries and powers outside the West.

Turkey says the concerns reflect a misunderstanding. It says its relations with Europe and the United States won't suffer as it expands its influence in other directions, and it has sought to position itself as a broker between the West and the Middle East. Turkish officials argue that their country's ties with Tehran provide unique influence that the West should make use of.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said this week at a conference on U.S.-Turkish relations that the United States is not pressuring Turkey on the missile defense issues. Still, a Turkish refusal of the radar or problems negotiating the NATO statement could cause tensions to spike. Both sides say they are looking for a solution.

"We do want to reach a deal," Selim Yenel, deputy undersecretary in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, said in an interview. "We don't want any problems at the NATO summit. It should be finalized by then."

A solution could involve playing down any mention of Iran as the motivation for building a missile defense system. With anger at Iran running high in the United States, however, the Obama administration may find that an uncomfortable compromise.

[Associated Press; By DESMOND BUTLER]

Desmond Butler covers foreign affairs for The Associated Press.

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