 Critics say it is almost impossible for political newcomers to beat
an entrenched incumbent for a seat in Illinois' General Assembly. In
536 races, only 11 incumbents have lost over the past decade. So
when a lawmaker retires or moves on, challengers jump at the chance
to run for the open seat. There are eight open seats up for election
this year.Kent Redfield, political science professor at the
University of Illinois at Springfield, said open seats are important
for both Democrats and Republicans.
"Open seats present opportunities," Redfield said. "The party
that's been holding the seat is at risk of losing the seat. The
party that's been out of power sees it as an opportunity to take a
district that they might not have had a shot at if a longtime
popular incumbent hadn't decided to give it up."
This year's open seats are in districts that range from strongly
held Republican or Democratic districts to competitive swing
districts.
The race for the 71st District in the Illinois House is a
competitive race. The 71st District covers part of the Quad Cities.
State Rep. Mike Boland, D- East Moline has held the 71st seat since
1995. Dennis Ahern, a Democrat from Moline, and Rich Morthland, a
Republican from Cordova, are competing for the seat.
Morthland, a professor of speech communication at Black Hawk
College and the only Republican member of the Rock Island Board,
said that regardless of the district makeup, he thinks he has a good
shot at winning in November.
"The district is a lot like Illinois. There are a lot of farmers
and factory workers who are pretty traditional Illinois stock,"
Morthland said. "The Democrats have had a good run here, but I think
of this as a swing area. This is a year when we're going to be able
to make a change."
But the Democratic challenger, Ahern, who works in sales at Alcoa
and was a delegate for the 2008 National Democratic Convention, said
he has a clear advantage.
"This district historically in the last 10 elections has (just
over 2) voting Democrat for every 1 voting Republican," Ahern said.
"When you throw in the fact that I'm relatively socially and
fiscally conservative Democrat in a relatively socially and fiscally
conservative area, I should do fine."
The 71st District tends to lean Democratic, as is evidenced by
the area's other legislators, state Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline,
and state Rep. Pat Verschoore, D-Milan. But in this seemingly
Republican year the race could be close.
In the Chicago suburbs, the race for Republican Rep. Elizabeth
Coulson's seat in the 17th District is also expected to be close.
Coulson is retiring after 13 years in the General Assembly. Coulson
was known as a moderate in the Illinois House and faced tough
competition in her last several bids for re-election. One of her
fiercest competitors was Daniel Biss, a Democrat from Skokie, who
ran against Coulson in 2008 and lost by a little more than 1,500
votes. Biss is running again this year and will face off against
Republican Hamilton Chang, from Wilmette, in the general election
this fall.
Both parties are funneling significant funds into the race for
the 17th District's seat. In internal campaign documents, House
Republicans have identified Chang as a candidate they are focusing
on. And the House Democrats are pouring money into the district for
Biss.
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Biss said he has noticed the buzz from both parties about the
race.
"Both parties are very interested in the race," Biss said. "The
Republican Party has had staff here for quite some time. I know the
Democratic Party is extremely interested as well. There's a lot of
engagement in the community."
Chang said he believes the race will be determined by voters who
aren't tied to one party or the other.
"It's kind of the waking of the middle majority, independent
thinkers here in our district," Chang said. "They're well-educated,
they're well-read. My job is to basically compare and contrast the
philosophies."
Biss said voters are looking for a change in Springfield.
"I go door-to-door seven days a week and I talk to literally
dozens and dozens of voters every single day," Biss said. "The level
of frustration is enormous."
But not every open seat is going to create a competitive race.
The race will replace Rep. Bill Black, R-Danville, who has served
the Republican-leaning 104th District since 1986.
Black's hand-picked successor, Republican Chad Hays, said he
expects to win the seat handily in November.
"I believe (Rep.) Bill Black's endorsement matters," Hays said.
"This is someone who is trusted, who is really a living legend. So I
think those things will render me a candidate who is poised to run
... very assertively and very strong down the stretch of this race."
But that's not discouraging to Michael Puhr, because he said it's
not all about R's and D's.
"I'm a pretty conservative Democrat, and I'm hoping people will
look at the person and not the party when they vote," Puhr said.
The five other open seats are to replace incumbent state Rep. Bob
Biggins, R-Elmhurst; state Rep. Suzanne Bassi, R-Palatine; state
Rep. Ronald Wait, R-Belvidere; state Rep. Paul Froehlich,
D-Schaumburg; and state Rep. Betsy Hannig, D-Gillespie.
[Illinois
Statehouse News; By JENNIFER WESSNER]
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