 "Obama seats" are seats that were picked up by Democrats during the
2006 and 2008 elections when independent voters turned out in droves
for Democratic challengers as the nation turned toward the 2008
presidential election of Barack Obama. Many of these lawmakers were
swept into office in districts that usually vote Republican. This
year, it appears the political tide has changed to favor
Republicans, and many of those Democrats are in danger of losing
their seats.Kent Redfield, a professor of political science at
the University of Illinois at Springfield, said being a newer
incumbent to the General Assembly makes these candidates easier to
pick off by Republican challengers.
"If you've only been in office two years, then you haven't had a
chance to take full advantage of being an incumbent by leveraging
your incumbency to build kind of generalized support," Redfield
said. "You don't have the advantage of a three- or four-term
incumbent, and you're weighed down by the huge budget mess."
A prime example is state Rep. Jehan Gordon, D-Peoria, in the 92nd
House District. Gordon was elected to the Illinois House in 2008
after U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock, who held the seat until 2007, won his
bid for Illinois' 18th Congressional District.
Gordon is a top target for House Republicans this year. Although
the district traditionally votes Democratic, Republicans believe the
current anti-incumbent mood among voters will help them win the
seat.
But Gordon said she doesn't fall into the same category as
entrenched incumbents.
"I don't feel that I'm one of those folks that people are
extremely angry at," Gordon said. "Do I think that people are
extremely angry and frustrated with the system? Yeah. So am I. I'm
just as frustrated as they are, because I walked into this system
wanting to do good things. But it seems by and large the only things
I've been able to do since I've been down there is put out fires."
But Jim Montelongo, Gordon's Republican opponent, who lives in
Peoria, said Gordon is just as much a part of the problem as the
rest of the Democratic incumbents in the General Assembly.
"She chose not to balance the budget; she walked away from that,"
Montelongo said. "She could have said something in the previous nine
months before the vote, but she did nothing."
But Gordon said pushing for budget reform just didn't make sense
this year.
"When I think about the votes that I take, when I thought about,
OK, yeah, I could hold out, I could let government shut down, and
then we'd really be able to get in here and show them," Gordon said.
"Who does that help? The real question is, who does it hurt? It
hurts the very people who sent me down there to try and get some
solutions to this thing. Do I feel like we're going to get some
solutions to these things? Absolutely. Do I think it's going to come
overnight? Absolutely not."
[to top of second column] |
In the Chicago suburbs, new state Sen. Michael Bond, D-Grayslake,
is facing stiff competition in the race for the 31st House District.
Bond was elected in 2006 after longtime Republican state Sen.
Adeline Jay Geo-Karis was defeated in the Republican primary by Sue
Simpson. The 31st District traditionally leans Republican, but Bond
defeated Simpson.
Bond said the race is gaining a lot of attention in the area.
"We've never had more energy or enthusiasm for a campaign in Lake
County," Bond said. "I have a lot of folks who have followed in my
footsteps, and they're now county commissioners. I have dozens of
people who ran for school board. I think there's just a level of
energy up there in Lake County and particularly the northern part of
the county that we haven't seen in a long, long time."
Opponent Suzi Schmidt, a Republican from Lake County, has a long
history with the community, serving as chairwoman of the Lake County
Board since 2000.
Schmidt said she is running for a seat in the Statehouse because
she feels she can do some good in Springfield.
"I really think that I have something to offer the state via all
my years of experience," Schmidt said. "So that's why I decided to
get involved at a different level. I can stay in my nice cushy job
at the county because it's a great job. But I've done my job there.
So now it's time to maybe rock the boat a little bit and see if I
can do something to help the state out."
If all the Democratic incumbents who hold "Obama seats" lose this
November, Republicans could get very close to the magic number
needed to take back the Illinois House and could cost Senate
Democrats their super-majority. To do this, Republicans would have
to gain 12 seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.
However, Redfield said that prospect is highly unlikely, despite
current public criticism against incumbents and longtime Speaker of
the House Michael Madigan, D-Chicago.
"To have everything break right to end up with the Republicans
taking control of the House is still a long shot," Redfield said.
"But I think you can't look at the way that the speaker has dealt or
not dealt with issues without coming to the conclusion that he's
been very concerned."
[Illinois
Statehouse News; By JENNIFER WESSNER]
 |
