The Union League
Club of Chicago will play host to the first public
debate between the two candidates for governor.It will be a
pivotal moment in a race that has seen a substantial back-and-forth
over the peripheral policies like the administration's early
prisoner release program and the senator's conservative views on
women's issues. Such campaigning has led to low expectations from
political observers like Paul Green, director of the Roosevelt
University School of Policy Studies.
"You can expect a lot of adjectives and adverbs, but not many
nouns," Green said. "Neither man can talk about the reality of what
we are facing, the dire situation the state is in, so they avoid the
subject."
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The back-and-forth will continue on Wednesday, but the debate
will center on the issues at the forefront of voters' minds -- the
economy and state budget. Those issues will highlight the main
differences between and evoke the passions of each candidate,
according to University of Chicago political science professor John
Brehm.
"Quinn will talk about the irrationality of Brady's hopes to cut
taxes and spending enough to balance the budget," he said. "Brady
will be talking about the problems of the budget, taxes and fees,
which are largely a Chicago issue, ... and Quinn's push for higher
taxes," Brehm said.
Quinn will have the advantage of a friendly crowd drawn from his
Democratic base in Chicago. But the question of voter enthusiasm is
one he will have to answer on Wednesday. Illinois, like most of the
country, has seen a rise in Republican enthusiasm heading into the
2010 elections, while Democrats have seen a decline from 2008's
historic election of President Barack Obama.
It is Quinn's job at the top of the ticket to inspire Democratic
supporters as the campaign enters its final month. A spotlight on
the economy could help Quinn's ability to connect with voters. But
Green said the governor's campaign has suffered from a lack of
focus.
"Quinn needs a theme for his campaign," he said. "He's been
throwing punches in all directions, but he hasn't had a theme and it
may be too late."
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Brady has a narrow advantage over Quinn in the polls, thanks
largely to his 20 percent lead in downstate Illinois. The Republican
needs support from the Chicago suburbs if he hopes to occupy the
governor's mansion in January.
Quinn's approval ratings are low in the suburbs, but the voters
in the region generally lean toward more socially liberal
Republicans, like U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kirk, who currently
represents the 10th District in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Brady's best chances will also be to focus on the economy, Brehm
said, rather than the social conservatism that has helped him poll
well in downstate Illinois.
"I expect Quinn to rehash social issues like abortion," Brehm
said. "And suburban voters may well care, but the main issue is the
economy and the question of insolvency ... and their own
pocketbooks."
Green believes Brady's debate strategy could be simpler still.
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"Brady just needs to not make a mistake," Green said.
Wednesday's debate represents only the second time the two
candidates have met since the end of the legislative session. They
squared off for a private debate in front of the Commercial Club of
Chicago on Sept. 21. Both expressed mutual respect following the
forum before issuing criticism of one another's tax policies and
special interest ties.
Brady and Quinn will meet two more times before the Nov. 2
election. They will square off in Carbondale on Oct. 14 before
returning to Chicago on Oct. 20 for a debate sponsored by the League
of Women Voters.
[Illinois
Statehouse News; By BILL McMORRIS] |