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"Given the organisational, logistical and firepower superiority on the battlefield of the regime's forces, it would be highly surprising if they did not move in to try to disrupt oil flows to Marsa El-Harigh, perhaps by striking at the long pipeline connecting the Sirte Basin to the port," Ciszuk said in a note to clients. "While neither side initially would want to risk destroying upstream structures and risking damaging reservoirs, potentially irreversibly, the risk for the escalation of violence is obvious and this could ... be a harbinger of long-term damage and disruptions making a recovery for the Libyan oil industry a steep uphill climb," he added. Ciszuk also dismissed reports from Agoco that production from the Sirte Basin could quickly be increased via the recruitment of Arab oil engineers, mainly Egyptians, to make up for a shortage of Libyans, as "very over-optimistic."
[Associated
Press;
Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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