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Key to any transition will be maintaining order and keeping out potential spoilers sponsored by Assad allies like Iran, or even extremists in the ranks of the rebel forces. U.S. officials say they believe jihadists and al-Qaida-linked fighters make up only a small percentage of the resistance but are concerned that they could try to wield influence if a power vacuum develops. The dangers of a failed state in a religiously divided society are all too apparent in Iraq, where the collapse of the region's other Baathist regime unleashed a cycle of vendetta killings and a bloody struggle for power. More than 100,000 American troops were unable to enforce calm. The diversity of Syrian society, which includes Sunnis, Christians, Druse, Kurds and Assad's Alawite community, makes the possibility of a post-Assad power struggle all the more likely. Already, the conflict has seen Alawite gunmen participating in mass killings of Sunni civilians, as well as tit-for-tat slayings of Alawites by Sunnis. "We have to make sure that we send very clear expectations about avoiding sectarian warfare," Clinton said. "Those who are attempting to exploit the misery of the Syrian people, either by sending in proxies or sending in terrorist fighters, must recognize that that will not be tolerated first and foremost by the Syrian people." The U.S. message, however, is hindered by the limited leverage it holds with an armed opposition to whom it provided only limited assistance throughout the civil war. Despite calls for greater support, Washington has steadfastly refused to entertain the idea of airstrikes, enforcing no-fly zones or providing weapons to the rebels. "Our influence will be limited, but I'm not sure that arming the rebels would change that necessarily," said Robert Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former State Department specialist on the Mideast. "Right now, their interests are to get rid of Assad. But who is to say that we'll share the same goals afterward? And who is to say that those who bring Assad down will wield power afterward?" The situation is starkly different from the one in Libya, where the United States and its NATO allies bombed Moammar Gadhafi's forces and defense installations until he and his regime were brought down. Then, too, the U.S. officially backed the Transitional National Council as the representative of the Libyan people
-- conferring legitimacy on specific opposition leaders and wielding influence with them as they gained control over the country. In Syria, no such developments have occurred. Washington may still have significant influence through allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey that have provided the rebels with more direct assistance
-- making Clinton's discussions Saturday in Istanbul all the more timely.
[Associated
Press;
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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