|
Q: It's like those stories coming out of Greece where people get higher taxes tacked on to their utility bills and they say they won't pay them because they can't. A: Exactly. It's an illustration of the principle that they want to do the right thing, but how can they get it done if nobody will pay the bill. Q: OK, let's talk about the U.S. What's your view of economic growth here? A: One thing is for sure: we are not heading into a recession. The recent numbers are encouraging, but we can't get carried away. If the economy grows from 2.5 percent to 3 percent or a little higher, we can't expect the next stop to be 4 percent. Consumers are spending, but not a lot. Employers are hiring, but not a lot. There are constraints and headwinds that prevent us from having the typical bounce-back recovery that you'd like to see after a recession. What's important for the U.S. is to maintain respectable growth. Our economy is not yet strong enough to withstand any financial contagion that spreads from Europe. Q: And what about the big drag on the economy: housing. Is there a turnaround on the horizon? A: My view is that we are probably in a long-term bottoming process in real estate. According to the Case-Shiller index, the cataclysmic decline in home prices has long ended and prices bottomed out in May 2009. But we've continued to bounce along. Banks are unwilling to make mortgage loans and many loans are higher in value than the homes. All that's kept the real estate recovery very slow. New construction is taking place at just half the pace of population growth. At some point those things will have to balance out. Q: Globally, China and India seem to be slowing down. Does that worry you, given that a lot of corporate growth seems to have come from overseas lately? A: You're right; corporate profits don't equate to U.S. growth anymore. U.S. consumption only accounts for 28 percent of the S&P 500 profits. Only 55 percent of the largest companies' revenue comes from the U.S. Even with continued slowing, China and India will count for about half of global GDP growth in 2012. So those are critical economies. If the authorities can beat runaway inflation in those countries, and Europe doesn't fall off a cliff, their economies will have a soft landing. And that's important.
Q: Did I hear you right when you said you're aiming to lose 15 pounds? A: Yeah. Fifteen pounds would be a good number to lose, but only after the New Year. Q: But if I check back with you in a month I wouldn't be able to enforce it, right? Just like the ECB? A: Exactly. (Breaks into booming laughter.) Who's going to enforce it?
[Associated
Press;
Copyright 2012 The Associated
Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
News | Sports | Business | Rural Review | Teaching & Learning | Home and Family | Tourism | Obituaries
Community |
Perspectives
|
Law & Courts |
Leisure Time
|
Spiritual Life |
Health & Fitness |
Teen Scene
Calendar
|
Letters to the Editor