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Furthermore, a report Thursday showed that retail exports to Europe sank in November far more than overall U.S. exports did -- offering yet more evidence that the economic crisis overseas has begun to weigh on a recovering, but still fragile, U.S. economy.
If European consumers are pulling back, that could directly affect hiring in the U.S. just as the job market has shown recent signs of strengthening.
Still, consumers increased their borrowing in November by the most in a decade, according to a recent report. That could be promising for the retail sector, Shay said, if consumers are growing confident enough to take on debt again.
It may also mean, however, that shoppers are using credit cards only because take-home pay has stagnated. The savings rate fell in November to the lowest level since the recession began, perhaps a symptom of working wages stuck at levels unlikely to revive the retail sector.
Retailers will have to wait and see.
"We'll see a conservative approach to ordering," said Janet Hoffman, managing director of Accenture's global retailing practice. She expects orders for the rest of the year will be either unchanged or there will be modest increases.
The annual sales forecast was released as thousands of retailers gather in New York for the industry's annual convention.
[Associated
Press;
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