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Q. With all the saber rattling, why aren't oil prices soaring? A: Because oil will likely keep flowing. Asian countries, already Iran's biggest customers, aren't joining the Europeans in banning Iranian crude. Also, the European embargo doesn't start until July, so markets will likely have time to adjust. As Europe turns away from Iran to other markets, though, it could push up prices for certain types of global crudes. And the brinkmanship between Iran and the West may already be having some effect on prices, analysts say. "It could already be baked into the price (of oil)," says, Michael Levi, Director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change at the Council on Foreign Relations Q: Will the embargo hurt or help Iran? If Iran can no longer sell to Europe, it will have to find other buyers. That won't likely be difficult, especially given Asia's rising demand for oil. But Asian nations may be able to negotiate a discount for Iranian oil. "In the oil market, a little discount goes a long way," says Bhushan Bahree, a Middle East oil expert at IHS CERA. On the other hand, if global oil prices rise and Iran can sell its oil for somewhat higher prices, Iran's oil revenue will grow. Q: If Iranian oil is prevented from getting to market, will other nations be able to make up the difference? A: Eventually, yes. The U.S. is pressuring other Middle East and African nations to increase production to help keep Europe and the world well-supplied as the embargo slowly takes effect. Saudi Arabia says it could increase its supplies to make up for any lost Iranian crude. Iran's relatively heavy crude is easier to replace than the Libyan light, sweet crude that was cut off during last year's uprising. Still, an increase in production from other nations would leave little wiggle room for those countries to increase supplies further if needed. The oil market gets nervous, and sends prices higher, if it thinks producing nations don't have capacity to pump more oil to make up for a supply interruption somewhere in the world.
[Associated
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