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Some economists complain that the Labor Department's seasonal adjustments are always outdated by the time the summer auto-plant shutdowns are announced. "I find this frustrating every July when we get to the auto shutdowns," said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank. "In a soft patch, the most important thing to watch is the job market, and the best labor market indicator is jobless claims, and every July we basically have to throw them out." The Labor Department did not respond to requests for comment. The department's Employment and Training Administration is in charge of the seasonal adjustments to the data on unemployment applications. It decides in January or February how to adjust each week's figures. And in March, it publishes its seasonal calculations for the year ahead. Other Labor Department agencies calculate their seasonal adjustments each month, rather than far in advance. An example is the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which issues the monthly employment report. But none of the agencies try to predict future actions, such as the likelihood that auto companies will close fewer factors in summer. To do so, the department would have to estimate how many workers would be affected at the auto companies, their suppliers
-- "down to the company that's making sandwiches in the cafeteria," Riccadonna said. "Logistically, it's just too complicated." Most economists say the unemployment benefits applications report won't provide an accurate picture of the job market until at least early August. "The drop in claims would be nice if it were true," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a note to clients.
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